If Musk does convince anyone to go on a Mars mission in the near future, it isn't going to end well. At all. The many physiological issues caused by long-term weightlessness aren't solved, and both the journey and the Martian environment are extremely perilous. It's a toss-up what will kill the astronauts - medical emergency en route, lethal amounts of radiation, technology failure, crash landing, or surface conditions on Mars itself.
I give them perhaps a 5% chance of getting into orbit around Mars with no fatalities, < 1% chance of a successful landing, and 0% chance of surviving an entire year on the planet.
I give them perhaps a 5% chance of getting into orbit around Mars with no fatalities, < 1% chance of a successful landing, and 0% chance of surviving an entire year on the planet.
