Elon Musk

[AFTT47]

I give them perhaps a 5% chance of getting into orbit around Mars with no fatalities, < 1% chance of a successful landing, and 0% chance of surviving an entire year on the planet.

I'm curious about how you arrived at these figures. The < 1% chance of a successful landing is especially puzzling. They wouldn't be attempting the first crewed landing until they had already landed at least a dozen automated cargo ships first. They wouldn't have a choice, really. They would need literally tons of supplies waiting for them when they arrived. Landing should be well established by the time they try to land people.