Elon Musk

[Astreja]

I give them perhaps a 5% chance of getting into orbit around Mars with no fatalities, < 1% chance of a successful landing, and 0% chance of surviving an entire year on the planet.

I'm curious about how you arrived at these figures. The < 1%  chance of a successful landing is especially puzzling. They wouldn't be attempting the first crewed landing until they had already landed at least a dozen automated cargo ships first. They wouldn't have a choice, really. They would need literally tons of supplies waiting for them when they arrived. Landing should be well established by the time they try to land people.

The 5% is a guesstimate based on the physical effects of space travel breaking down the body during the long voyage, and the inaccessibility of medical care out there.  Essentially, a 1-in-20 chance of having no major medical emergencies and no fatalities. The Martian atmosphere is sufficiently thin that rockets will be required to land safely and, well, Musk doesn't have great luck with rockets, so a 1-in-5 chance of having a safe and uncomplicated landing.

Sending supplies on ahead is the only sensible thing to do, but since this is Musk's vanity project I'm expecting him to cut a lot of corners to try to speed things along.