Elon Musk

[AFTT47]

I'm curious about how you arrived at these figures. The < 1%  chance of a successful landing is especially puzzling. They wouldn't be attempting the first crewed landing until they had already landed at least a dozen automated cargo ships first. They wouldn't have a choice, really. They would need literally tons of supplies waiting for them when they arrived. Landing should be well established by the time they try to land people.

The 5% is a guesstimate based on the physical effects of space travel breaking down the body during the long voyage, and the inaccessibility of medical care out there.  Essentially, a 1-in-20 chance of having no major medical emergencies and no fatalities.  The Martian atmosphere is sufficiently thin that rockets will be required to land safely and, well, Musk doesn't have great luck with rockets, so a 1-in-5 chance of having a safe and uncomplicated landing.

Sending supplies on ahead is the only sensible thing to do, but since this is Musk's vanity project I'm expecting him to cut a lot of corners to try to speed things along.

Musk doesn't have great luck with rockets? I beg to differ. I remember well the initial efforts to land the Falcon 9 boosters. Explosion after spectacular explosion which Musk called RUDs for Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly in a bit of self-deprecating humor. Then they successfully landed a booster. And then another. And another. They went on to land over 300 of them consecutively until that streak was finally broken by a booster which had flown > 20 times.

I don't mean to pick on you Astreja but most everybody here is guilty of not paying Musk his due. I agree with most of you that the man is a royal asshole but he is also a brilliant visionary.

I agree with you regarding the physical effects of space travel breaking down the body during the long voyage and have been puzzled by Musk's lack of efforts to address that. It IS addressable but it will probably require a purpose-built interplanetary ship with nuclear rockets and radiation shielding at minimum. A rotating section to privide at least some small gravity would be desirable too. Such a craft is something you would probably build in space. But you would need a space-based infrastructure first which would probably be based on the moon. So I think Musk is putting the cart before the horse, blinded by his impatience.