RE: The Robots are Coming!
February 6, 2012 at 4:32 pm
(This post was last modified: February 6, 2012 at 4:39 pm by Anomalocaris.)
(February 6, 2012 at 12:52 pm)Mister Agenda Wrote: The world is already awash in a sea of low-skilled labor, making low wages the norm. But at least we don't have robots that can replace generalized human labor (front-line management and pilots/drivers are probably in more immediate danger of becoming obsolete). They are, however, coming. When a company can replace a janitor or carpenter's assistant with a $10,000 robot that can do the same job with no days off or wages, those jobs will be going away. And I am having trouble seeing what will replace them: I know some low-wage laborers have the potential to do more with their lives, but frankly, most of them are intellectually average or lower, it's why they aren't lawyers or dentists or cops in the first place. So a future where robots do all the drudge work and the millions of workers they replace devise an artistic utopia of leisure seems a bit far-fetched to me. Part of me says always bet on technology to take things in a direction I'm not currently anticipating, part of me says we better get ready to put a hell of a lot of people on welfare in the next 20 to 30 years.
It's going to be great if you're retired: I'll be quick to to get one of the 2nd or 3rd generation home assistant personal robots to help keep my home and yard and clothes neat and clean for way less than it would cost to employ a maid for a year. But if you're in your twenties and not college material, what job will you be able to get that a robot can't do as well or better?
I think one might take a page out of history of late Roman Republic and first half of the Epire to see what happens when a large block of population becomes unable to make a living by their own competitive productivity, and has realistic way to change that in the short run, and yet has the power to make or break governments.
Basically society plod on for a while, with power becoming increasingly concentrated in the hands of those who seems to be able to ensure the economic security of those who are not economically competitive, until eventually the society becomes a unstable, popularist dictatorship. Acute violent class struggle, transfer of power from the old power center which now must provide for those whose productivity can't compete, to new ones where they can.
