Pascal's Wager (the new version)

[Angrboda]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqJpZOljjG8


(I'll just mention that a lot of this appears to be using the principle of insufficient reason as a substitute for knowledge. The principle of insufficient reason tells us nothing about the actual probabilities, and everything about our own ignorance. It is a statement about what we can predict from a position of complete ignorance. It tells us nothing about the actual likelihood. Even if we know nothing about circles and squares, the probability of a god that exists in the form of a square circle does not become non-zero on account of our not knowing anything about the true probability. As evidence and knowledge increases, various subjective probabilities will trend toward zero. Others will increase in probability. I'm not going to try to understand how the philosophy of probability intersects with theories of value, but I'm going to lean toward the notion that following a less probable course rather than a more probable one is usually going to be an error. [There's a whole other side to this also having to do with economic theories of value, as well as the fact that humans don't, in general, assess loss or gain in a rational fashion. Ignoring for the moment the real possibility that value is ultimately entirely subjective. I know for me, the prospect of spending eternity, sucking the cock of some Semitic god, alongside Christians or Muslims, is a fate I would likely do my utmost to avoid. Give me an honorable life, and an honorable death, and leave my body to the crows when I am done with it.])

I'm reminded of the oft spoken aphorism that the lottery is a tax on people who are bad at math. Indeed. And many religions are little more than a tax on the stupid and ignorant, both metaphorically and literally.