Pascal's Wager (the new version)

[Angrboda]

I think you may be overlooking a key element in the wager. (And, yes, I've been doing the same thing.) In any wager, the value of the prize is a critical factor in determining the worthiness of the wager, and the element of proportion with respect to how much one should wager....

To be perfectly honest (since I'd just make a fool of myself if I didn't admit it), your post kind of went over my head. You're saying that the value of an afterlife and what you receive by believing in the correct God affects the formula/wager? And if there is a God, the value of life increases if my belief is correct? I just want to make sure I understand you.

Let me give you a simple example. Suppose there is a lottery in which the prize is $100, and a lottery ticket costs $2, and you have a 1 in 1,000 chance of winning. You probably would have a hard time persuading those 1,000 people to participate, and if you succeeded, then something is probably messed up. The prize of $100 is simply not commensurate with the risk and the cost of playing. Now on the other hand, if you increased the prize to $100,000,000 ($100 million dollars), and kept the cost of the tickets and odds of winning the same, you'll find a lot more people who are eager and willing to participate. (I could also adjust the odds so that the risk/reward is relatively the same, which is really fun in terms of watching people's intuitions, but that's another matter entirely.) The simple point is, the bigger the prize, the more you're willing to risk for it.

Now, as this relates to Pascal's wager, if the prize is actually infinite, then by the same logic, any finite amount of risk (the $2 cost of a ticket, or a life spent worshipping a god) becomes insignificant in comparison. That's the appeal of Pascal's wager. The prize is so ginormous, and the risk so small, that only a fool wouldn't take that bet.

(As you and I and others have pointed out, there are likely other relevant issues, but this seems to be the fulcrum. I will note that I have a life long aversion to gambling, so I can't suggest what an experienced gambler or book maker might say on the matter. For whatever reason, I have always found gambling, as anything more than a social pastime, to be something that I can readily do without.)