Are depressed people more realistic?

[Tonus]

I jumped the gun on that article. Still, for some reason I have it in my head that most people did not see the war coming.

That may be from the way the war in Europe began (with a surprise attack) and the way the USA was drawn in (with a surprise attack). Specific attacks can certainly come as a surprise, particularly to the public, which doesn't have the kind of information that government officials do. The situation in both Europe and in the Pacific had gotten to the point where it was understood that war was inevitable, but attempts to stave it off had to be made nonetheless.

Edit to add: the bit about FDR and the Pearl Harbor attack is to promote the idea that Roosevelt had knowledge of the attack but allowed it to happen in order to force the USA into war. There was a strong anti-war sentiment in the US, and FDR was itching to help the allies. But the argument that he would allow the Pearl Harbor attack is simply not logical. The loss of men and materiel in the attack took months to make up. An early warning and effective defense would not have prevented the USA's entry into the war, but would have left it in much better shape to fight back. And it could have been done without tipping off the Japanese to the progress that US code breakers had made.