RE: Determinism Is Self Defeating
July 25, 2013 at 8:58 am
(This post was last modified: July 25, 2013 at 9:00 am by The Grand Nudger.)
(July 24, 2013 at 7:01 pm)bennyboy Wrote: Except it isn't. When I hear thunder, I can predict rain with 100% success.If it so happened that hearing thunder -did- presage rain you'd be on to something. If the prediction panned out reliably you'd be justified in the conclusion that rain follows thunder. We know that it doesn't, of course. That the presence of thunder can - but does not always, indicate rain. Thunder does not satisfy the conditions of "given t" if "t+1" is to be rain. Pretty simple really.
Quote:This definitely does NOT generalize to the idea that all weather behaves predictably.Why should it?
Quote:Yes, but there are infinitely many unpredictable systems.Sounds like a guess. I want to see the numbers. Until you have total knowledge that's an unprovable claim. See how useless that is?
Quote:No. It would mean that free will would exert an influence at time t + 1, and that since you cannot predict that influence, the chain of causality is broken."Free will" -already- exerts an influence in the deterministic model and we are still capable of making predictions. You see, no matter what "free will" actually is..if it is at all...we are still left with our ability to make successful predictions.
Quote:And we're pretty good at undertanding people, but if you think we've mastered this in a deterministic way, you need to tell me what stock to buy. ;PThere are definitely people and formulas for doing so, but it isn't my thing, so you'd probably want to give those folks a call.
Quote:If you had access to that hidden variable, you could. But "hidden" means you can't.Well, this is disappointing....I've assumed your hidden variable exists in the here and now and then asked why we are still able to make predictions - if what you say about hidden variables is true, or the chain of causality being broken is true...then our experience should bear out a situation altogether different than the one we currently find ourselves in, wouldn't you say? Why -should- the deterministic model bear so much fruit if a hidden variable can monkey wrench it so absolutely? I think we'd have to invent a pretty elaborate and speculative explanation to address that question if we simply refused to acknowledge the power of the model altogether. Elaborate, and speculative...especially set aside something simple and well evidenced...is usually a no-go for me.
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