(February 9, 2014 at 12:30 pm)whateverist Wrote: So perhaps there is a need to "fine tune" common sense. There is a notion (common sense) that is poorly defined. Does it arise complete or is it added to and refined over a lifetime? (I'm guessing the latter.)
I always like this example:
I have a drugs test that is 99% accurate. 0.5% of the population take this drug. I take the test and it comes out positive. What is the probability I actually take the drug?
Lots of people will say 99%, perhaps through"common sense". This is incorrect. Again Bayes Theorem is needed. As a side note people have ended up in prison because people haven't understood this concept.
