RE: Life is not improbable.
April 8, 2014 at 11:58 pm
(This post was last modified: April 9, 2014 at 12:01 am by Heywood.)
(April 8, 2014 at 11:47 pm)tor Wrote:(April 8, 2014 at 11:34 pm)Heywood Wrote: Suppose you have a bin and inside of it are an infinite amount of marbles. All the marbles are white except one. The one exception is a ruby red marble.
If you randomly draw a marble from that bin that contains an infinite amount of marbles....is it possible you will draw the ruby red one? Yes it is because the ruby red marble exists and therefore it is possible you can draw it. However the probability you will draw the ruby red marble is not a positive number.
When infinite amount events happen, funny things happen.....one of which is that a possible event out of the infinite number of events may never come to fruition.
Sorry but you fail.
Create infinite number of planets suitable for abiogenesis.
The chance of life arising on a friendly planet is X. Number of planets is Y.
The probability of life arising on at least one planet is 1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )
The more planets you add the bigger chance of life arising on at least one of em.
If it's infinity the probability is going towards 100%.
Negative Tor, the fail is on you.
My example shows that a possible event doesn't have to have a positive probability when throw infinities into the mix.
