RE: Life is not improbable.
April 9, 2014 at 10:42 am
(This post was last modified: April 9, 2014 at 10:42 am by Heywood.)
(April 9, 2014 at 12:13 am)Esquilax Wrote: I can't believe I need to point this out to you, and don't take my refutation of this as a sign that I take your bare assertion remotely seriously, but if a probability has a negative number, then it's not possible. So you're essentially saying that yes, drawing the red marble is possible because it is in the set of possible choices, but that it's impossible.
Also? I reject the notion that there is only one red marble in your bin, because most likely there isn't, if we're drawing the correct analogy. Additionally, the longer the length of time you have to continue drawing marbles, the higher the probability of drawing a red one becomes.
That's how probability actually works.
You reject the notion that there is only on red marble in the bin? That's silly. Its a thought experiment...and now you're changing the parameters of it so that you can reject the conclusion. Classic strawmanning you are doing.
But what is hilarious about your strawman argument is that it still fails! The thought experiment works if there are 2 red marbles in the bin, or 4 or even an infinite number of red marbles in the bin. All that is needed for it be logically possible that a red marble is never drawn is that there are infinite number of white marbles.
Infinities fuck with probabilities in weird ways.
