Life is not improbable.

[Esquilax]

You reject the notion that there is only on red marble in the bin? That's silly. Its a thought experiment...and now you're changing the parameters of it so that you can reject the conclusion. Classic strawmanning you are doing.

Okay, so we can safely say you also don't know what a strawman is, because for it to be a strawman I would have to be implying that what I'm saying is your position, when what I'm actually doing is correcting an issue I find with the position you do have.

But what is hilarious about your strawman argument is that it still fails! The thought experiment works if there are 2 red marbles in the bin, or 4 or even an infinite number of red marbles in the bin. All that is needed for it be logically possible that a red marble is never drawn is that there are infinite number of white marbles.

Infinities fuck with probabilities in weird ways.

It's possible that the red marble would never be drawn, but that doesn't mean it's impossible It just means it's improbable, and as I keep saying, improbable is not the same as impossible.

Additionally, there's more problems with your analogy than I think you realize; what if there's an infinite number of red marbles? The only thing you can safely say is that life as we know it can only exist in this small band of existence, but to extrapolate that out and say that this is the only "red marble" there is is overreaching. You're merely assuming that all the other marbles will be white, when you have no idea. What if you opened the lid to a bin of nothing but red marbles? Or an infinity of red marbles studded with a few white ones?

What if the number isn't infinite, and there are indeed finite possibilities? What if there's more than one bin, or you can draw marbles for an infinity of time? You just don't know, making your entire analogy an argument from ignorance, as well as a profound misunderstanding of probability.

Again.