(April 11, 2014 at 11:41 pm)MindForgedManacle Wrote:(April 11, 2014 at 11:38 pm)tor Wrote: I tell a town of stupid people I'm a wizard. People believe me. Does that make me more likely to be a wizard? No.
More likely than it would have been if you hadn't said so. But of course as I said earlier, other evidence alters the probability of a claims likelihood, e.g in this case, we have good reasons to be very skeptical that magic or wizeds exist.
Wrong. The belief is not evidence of the truth of the beliefs. The belief is the evidence that belief come from somewhere(me) and it had a cause(me).
It tells us NOTHING about if there is a wizard or not.
