(April 11, 2014 at 10:09 pm)Coffee Jesus Wrote: Suppose its probability, P(T), was only 0.01 to begin with. If P(O) · 3 = P(O|T), then its probability has only increased to .03 per Bayes' formula. Its probability is still very small, but it did increase.
P(T|O) = P(O|T) · P(T) / P(O)
P(T|O) = .75 · .01 / .25
P(T|O) = .03
I've always said that math wizards could manipulate their equations to prove the universe is made out of peanutbutter if they wanted to. I just never expected anyone to use math to prove the existence of a mystical magical being.
If your thinking held any merit, then every child ever born has witnessed some kind of monster: in the closet, under the bed, in the attic, cellar, vacant house, forest... So, the probability that the boogeyman exists must be very high, yes?
There is an ALLLL-knowing, ALLLL-powerful, inVISible being who is everywhere, who created the WHOLE universe, who lives in another dimension called heaven, who is perfect in every way, who was never born and will never die, and who watches you every minute of every day (even when you're squeezing one out on the toilet). There are also unicorns, leprechauns, Santa Claus, an Easter Bunny, and a giant purple people eater.
JUST BELIEVE IT!
JUST BELIEVE IT!
