Only if you know how many marbles are in the bag, of course. If you don't know that, then you have no means of determining the probability at all, and are just talking out your ass if you begin to assign probabilities to the colors of the marbles based on what you've already drawn.
And, of course, if you can discount the existence of other variables too. For example, if you have a bag filled with marbles that were randomly dropped into a bag by a machine, but what you don't know is that, after the bag was filled a person came by and covered the top layer of the bag with exclusively white marbles, then you'd just be sitting there, drawing white marbles over and over and making assertions of probability, gleefully unaware of the complicating variable that's influencing what's going on.
Oh, and the potential color the marbles could be also plays a roll. I mean, if you're doing this with a bag of randomly selected marbles, and you know that there were only two kinds of marbles in the initial pool, then the probability of them all being white is higher than if the initial pool contained three types of marbles.
See how confounding variables make short work of simplistic assertions of probability based on prior observation? Every marble you find is a white marble, right up until you find your first non-white marble.
And, of course, if you can discount the existence of other variables too. For example, if you have a bag filled with marbles that were randomly dropped into a bag by a machine, but what you don't know is that, after the bag was filled a person came by and covered the top layer of the bag with exclusively white marbles, then you'd just be sitting there, drawing white marbles over and over and making assertions of probability, gleefully unaware of the complicating variable that's influencing what's going on.
Oh, and the potential color the marbles could be also plays a roll. I mean, if you're doing this with a bag of randomly selected marbles, and you know that there were only two kinds of marbles in the initial pool, then the probability of them all being white is higher than if the initial pool contained three types of marbles.
See how confounding variables make short work of simplistic assertions of probability based on prior observation? Every marble you find is a white marble, right up until you find your first non-white marble.
"YOU take the hard look in the mirror. You are everything that is wrong with this world. The only thing important to you, is you." - ronedee
Want to see more of my writing? Check out my (safe for work!) site, Unprotected Sects!
Want to see more of my writing? Check out my (safe for work!) site, Unprotected Sects!
