(January 6, 2015 at 9:08 pm)Heywood Wrote: The example I used in the OP works for any bag of marbles containing N number of marbles. The probability that all the marbles are white always moves closer to 1 with each draw of a white marble while never drawing a black one. You can work this out for yourself with 4 marbles or 5...or 10,000 marbles.
Unless the bag is constantly being refilled without your knowledge, or contains black marbles that have been coated externally with white paint, or has a secret compartment sown in containing a black marble, or an insane person is drawing the marbles and reporting them all as white, even if they aren't...
Confounding variables. They exist even if you don't consider them. That's rather the danger of them.
"YOU take the hard look in the mirror. You are everything that is wrong with this world. The only thing important to you, is you." - ronedee
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Want to see more of my writing? Check out my (safe for work!) site, Unprotected Sects!
