(January 6, 2015 at 9:24 pm)Heywood Wrote:(January 6, 2015 at 9:19 pm)Jenny A Wrote: Just to note though with regard to your marble example. It's highly optomistic. The world is a great deal messier than that. Chances are that you'd have no way of knowing even that all of the marbles had to be either black or white. There's a world of color possibilities out there.
The bag will contain marbles of the same color or it will not. The truthfulness of the proposition that the bag contains only marbles of the same color is not impacted by the number of color possibilities.
The probability of the bag being filled with all white marbles is established by the filling technique and the color characteristics of the population of marbles from which it was filled. You sequentially extracting marbles and observing their color has absolutely no bearing on this probability.
