RE: How we determine facts.
January 7, 2015 at 10:55 pm
(This post was last modified: January 7, 2015 at 10:56 pm by Heywood.)
(January 7, 2015 at 1:44 pm)Cato Wrote:(January 6, 2015 at 9:24 pm)Heywood Wrote: The bag will contain marbles of the same color or it will not. The truthfulness of the proposition that the bag contains only marbles of the same color is not impacted by the number of color possibilities.
The probability of the bag being filled with all white marbles is established by the filling technique and the color characteristics of the population of marbles from which it was filled. You sequentially extracting marbles and observing their color has absolutely no bearing on this probability.
You do not understand what probability is.
Probability is not some established fact. The bag was either filled with all white marbles or it was not. The composition of the bag is a fact....and it happens to be unknown to us.
Probability is an estimate of how likely one particular set of circumstances has occurred or will occur. Because it is an estimate, it changes as available information changes. Each time you draw a marble from the bag, you obtain new information about the composition of the bag. This new information allows you to revise your estimate.
