RE: How we determine facts.
January 8, 2015 at 11:04 am
(This post was last modified: January 8, 2015 at 11:04 am by Heywood.)
(January 8, 2015 at 12:47 am)Rhythm Wrote:(January 7, 2015 at 11:53 pm)Heywood Wrote: Sure I can. I assign the probability to be X. I then make conclusions about X as each marble is drawn from the bag. With each draw X moves closer to 1 or to 0.Except that it doesn't.
I realize now what your error in thinking is. You keep thinking that a probability is some absolute fact. It is not. A probability is an estimate. It is a tool used by intellects to estimate how likely something is to be true or the case. As new information becomes available the estimate can change. In the example I gave, each time a marble is drawn, new information is obtained which changes the estimate of how likely it is the case that all the marbles are white.
