Russia's imploding.

[Anomalocaris]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonk...ol_strip_2

President Obama might have a future as a credit rating analyst. During his State of the Union, you might remember, he took a victory lap of sorts when he declared that, as the price of its aggression, Russia's economy was "in tatters." Well, S&P agrees: the rating agency just downgraded Russia to junk.

Now, normally I wouldn't pay any attention to what a credit rating agency says about a government. That's just, like, their opinion, man, and often a poor one at that. But this time is, well, different, because if Russia is rated junk, then its companies will be too—which will increase the borrowing costs on their existing debt. It could also trigger earlier bond repayments, which, together with the higher interest rates, could, according to one official, cost them as much as $20 to $30 billion.

And that's $20 to $30 billion it really can't afford. Russia, as I've said before, doesn't have an economy so much as an oil-exporting business that subsidizes everything else. But it can't subsidize much when prices are only $50-a-barrel. That leaves Russia in a world of bad, worse, and Dostoevskian choices. Cheaper oil, you see, means that Russian companies have fewer dollars to turn into rubles, which is just another way of saying that there's less demand for rubles—so its price is falling. But it can't fall too much or Russian companies, who have a lot of dollar debts they can't roll over due to Western sanctions, won't be able to pay back what they owe. Even worse, Russia banks could face a run on their foreign currency holdings, as people try to turn rubles they think will lose value into dollars that won't.

Russia can't wake up from this economic nightmare, though, because they're not asleep. This is their reality. After falling in almost perfect tandem with oil for most of the year, the ruble started free falling in December. In under a week, it went from 55 to 75 rubles per dollar—a 36 percent decline—and the panic got so bad that the bank run turned into an Apple and Ikea run. People decided that if they couldn't ditch their rubles for dollars, then they'd settle for the latest smartphones and assemble-it-yourself furniture instead.

See, Putin...you were in the KGB. So I understand that the Russia you worked for was the Soviet Union-era Russia. But let me, a humble US citizen, let you in on a little secret...

Russia is not the Soviet Union anymore.

It is not a superpower.

It's barely a global power.

You do not have the production or financial capabilities to continue trying to cling to your former territories that want nothing to do with you any longer.

Your less-than-subtle attempts to try to force annexation from nations you no longer have any influence over otherwise? Did you seriously believe you would not face international sanctions? You were a former spymaster of the KGB. Was the KGB really so inept that it had people like you running its intelligence operations?? People who have this utter lack of foresight and understanding of international affairs?? No wonder the Soviet Union fell apart...

But anyway, Putin. You're not the US. You can't get away with interfering in politics outside of your own country by force anymore. You're a shadow, a husk of your former glory. Get over it.

Or, you should have gotten over it. Now, you're fucked.



Russia is screwed. Their economy is going to fall the fuck apart all over again. Was Ukraine REALLY worth this risk?? What, exactly, did Putin think he stood to gain that made this risk worth it? Was he so swole over his victory over that tiny little country called Georgia that he thought he could pull a puppet-war against the Ukrainians, who absolutely hate Russia these days??

I'm sad for the Russian people, though. They will be the ones to suffer the most, and let's face it, we all know they didn't elect this shithead. Putin's so corrupt that he basically rigged the elections. He's just a thug. And now they all have to pay for it. Again. As usual.

I feel bad for the Russian people. They deserve much better. Instead, they get this. :/

I think that reflects what Americans wish were true, But i don't think it is anything close to what actually is true.

Russian economy is in recession, but a forecast, inspite of sanctions, of one year of -4% GDP growth followed by another of -1% GDP growth, before returning to positive growth, does not come anywhere close to"fucked". Ukraine's economy is in recession four times deeper, inspite of modest western support, and I think ukraine will be very truly fucked and will cry uncle. Russia will bounce back.

As to russia not being superpower or global power, Russia will always be a global power because it is so large, able to swing play states in Europe off against states all the way on the east end of Asia. It is a geostrategic swing player and that makes it a global player. It is a global power simply by being, unlike other powers that has to spend treasure to put bases everywhere in order to be a global power. Russia is only a fraction as strong or as rich as china, yet china is not at all a global military power, Russia is. Russia is the pivotal power of Euroasia, and that gives it a large bag of tricks in reserve, not available to counties limited to any one region, that it can pull if it really see itself in trouble. Think about it.

To russian way of thinking, ukraine is as integral to russian sense of long term nationhood as perhaps the antebellum south was to the United States. Antebellum United states was certain no global power, much less superpower. But it was willing to pay an exorbitant price, including largest number, and by far the largest percentage, of casualties it ever suffered in its history, to hold on to parts that was not willing to be part of it, but was deemed vital to its own view of future. This dissuaded superpowers of the day from effectively exploiting the situation where parts of United States didn't want to be part of United States anymore.
Russia is paying nothing near the same price to subjugate ukraine as the U.S. paid to subjugate the rebel south. I bet if push comes to shove, Putin, and large part of russian population, is actually willing to pay a price comparable to what the U.S. paid in blood and treasure during the civil war in order to hold on to Ukraine.

So why this triumphalist "Russia is fucked" song and dance?