Russia's imploding.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Saudi foreign reserve is the means by which the kingdom can menipulate regional politics in order to give the siberitic monarchy the influence to survive. If they don't have their foreign reserve and the influence and menipulative power it buys anti-Saudi forces within the kingdom and in the surrounding region will rise up and lynch the saud family in 6 month.

I disagree. Firstly, the Saudi budget runs annually about $230 billion meaning that they could finance their nation for three years without earning another nickel -- except that that won't be the case, as they will still be calling OPEC's tune as they watch the world dance. That is a catbird seat, right there. Secondly, they can also manipulate regional politics via the lever of OPEC, by either going along with a cartel decision, or undermining it with sovereign decisions on production. Thirdly, I don't think the Saudi populace is nearly so rebellious as you seem to think. I know that there are factions internally which operate against the government, but could they garner support in a state where the media is controlled by the government? I doubt they could do so, especially in the timeframe you envisage here.

So we can be sure Saudi regime's apetite for drawing down its foreign reserves for any purpose other than preserving the Saudi family rule is limited. Punishing russia for not giving ukraine freely to NATO is unlikely to be vital to survival of Saudi family rule.

Agreed. But the motive for cutting Russia's throat need not be the invasion of Ukraine. If I were a Saudi oilman, I'd want to kill that competition on general principles, and I'd use the Ukrainian intervention to dress up my cutthroat play in nobility.

Furthermore, the advant of fracking and other newly tappable reserves suggests long term oil prices will be much lower in the future than might have been expected 5 years. This means in the future, the margin in the oil Saudi arabia can sell will be much lower than in the past, which in turn means oil prices will on the whole not rise as much, thus Saudi arabia's ability to replenish depleted foreign reserve will be much less than it might have been before. This would further diminish Saudi arabia's appetite to draw down its existing reserves.

You're not giving enough airtime to the fact that fracking is a relatively expensive mode of extraction, while wet wells are still going strong in the Arabian peninsula. That means that whenever frackers start to impinge on Saudi sales, the SAudis can simply increase production, forcing the price of a barrel down as they're doing now. The companies pursuing fracking will not all survive those imposed lean times (we're seeing consolidation down here in Texas already), and the Saudis snuff out the expenditure of energy investment resources. Because they still have large wet-well reserves, that means they can keep sucking US energy investment into that trap, and then raise the price when the competition has thinned out. Lather, rinse, repeat.

I believe maintaining low oil prices over around 6 month has already cost Saudi arabia around $100 billion. How much of its reserves is it willing to draw down? Half? I seriously doubt it. But let's say half. How long will $400 billion last at the rate of $100 billion every 6 month?

So russia returns to fiscal integrity within 2 years, tops.

Do you have a source for that cost of $100b for six months?

The Saudis are projecting their 2015 budget based on an oil price of $60/bbl. That is still 40% below the 2008 levels which allowed Russia to emerge from its doldrums and start rattling cages again. Their military infrastructure is in harsh need of updating, and an emergent China will present one more set of military contingencies to plan for even as budgets will likely remain flat.

What that tells me is that Russia will be able to project ample power regionally, but only usefully on one front at a time and with limited offensive capabilities.