RE: Does the prospect of nuclear disaster still frighten anyone these days?
March 21, 2015 at 7:19 am
I think the possibility of a terrorist getting a nuclear weapon is the most significant threat. The possibility of a madman getting control of a country with nukes and arbitrarily using them to nuke another country is slim to nonexistent. More likely some paranoid madman in charge of a country with nukes is accidentally placed in a situation where his paranoia is triggered and he believe his enemy is about to bring down his regime, and he lashes out with nuclear weapon.
I think the most likely place where terrorist would get their hands on a bomb would be in Saudi arabia. Saudi Arabia has no bomb yet, but it is vigorously pursuing a bomb as insurance against nuclear armed Iran. Unlike other marginal nuclear powers, Saudi arabia already has a sizeable functioning intermediate range ballistic missile arsenal, sold to them by China in the late 1980s, that could stand ready to deliver any nuclear warhead Saudi arabia should come to possess. I give at least 50% chance Saudi arabia will either manage to build or buy a nuclear arsenal in the next 10 years. If Saudi arabia acquires a nuclear arsenal, that would be the place where any Sunni terrorist would most likely get a hold of a nuclear bomb.
I think the most likely place where terrorist would get their hands on a bomb would be in Saudi arabia. Saudi Arabia has no bomb yet, but it is vigorously pursuing a bomb as insurance against nuclear armed Iran. Unlike other marginal nuclear powers, Saudi arabia already has a sizeable functioning intermediate range ballistic missile arsenal, sold to them by China in the late 1980s, that could stand ready to deliver any nuclear warhead Saudi arabia should come to possess. I give at least 50% chance Saudi arabia will either manage to build or buy a nuclear arsenal in the next 10 years. If Saudi arabia acquires a nuclear arsenal, that would be the place where any Sunni terrorist would most likely get a hold of a nuclear bomb.
