RE: Does the prospect of nuclear disaster still frighten anyone these days?
March 21, 2015 at 2:45 pm
(This post was last modified: March 21, 2015 at 2:46 pm by JuliaL.)
The early cold war threats of a nuclear exchange as part of a conventional war between major powers have declined. We think different now. It is hard to judge the minds of the decision makers of 60 years ago. We cannot un-learn what is now common wisdom regarding nuclear winter and the long term effects of widespread high level fallout. The 1950s was a time when above ground testing was considered reasonable, high level nuclear waste disposal was a problem we would solve when necessary. There were fewer nukes and they were smaller. And lots of the generals had gotten their combat medals from fighting the Japs(sic) hand to hand in the pacific. A magic bullet to easily win what would otherwise be protracted and widespread slaughter was tempting. Stalin owned eastern Europe and was at the peak of a total war buildup of material looking at western Europe. Mao had taken China.
Then we learned better and sane people prevailed. In a major nuclear exchange, we all know what happens. So I don't worry about the status quo.
But I still fear lesser risks:
Minor local wars could go nuclear: India vs Pakistan, Israel vs Iran.
US gets cocky and enters a land war in Asia to "fix" a problem like Ukraine and worse yet, starts to win.
Some lunatic decides to make history by putting their one and only probably working warhead onto a Walmart container and sails it into San Francisco.
Some religious nut decides that the best way to assure themselves that they will be there for Armageddon is to start it.
I doubt these scenarios (other than the US vs Russia) would lead to large enough exchanges to destroy technological civilization, but I still fear them.
Then we learned better and sane people prevailed. In a major nuclear exchange, we all know what happens. So I don't worry about the status quo.
But I still fear lesser risks:
Minor local wars could go nuclear: India vs Pakistan, Israel vs Iran.
US gets cocky and enters a land war in Asia to "fix" a problem like Ukraine and worse yet, starts to win.
Some lunatic decides to make history by putting their one and only probably working warhead onto a Walmart container and sails it into San Francisco.
Some religious nut decides that the best way to assure themselves that they will be there for Armageddon is to start it.
I doubt these scenarios (other than the US vs Russia) would lead to large enough exchanges to destroy technological civilization, but I still fear them.
So how, exactly, does God know that She's NOT a brain in a vat?