RE: The probability of the accuracy of probability itself? Etc.
February 5, 2009 at 5:57 pm
(This post was last modified: February 5, 2009 at 5:59 pm by lilphil1989.)
I understand what you mean.
If we flip 100 coins, probability says there will be 50 heads and 50 tails, but what is the probability of this actually happening in one sample of 100 flips?
Probably not very high! (definitely not 100%, i tried to get a numerical answer but couldnt figure out an expression for the number of possible outcomes that would result in 50 heads, 50 tails
, total number of outcomes is 2^100 )
But probability tells you the average in the limit of an infinite number of samples.
So I don't see a problem...
EDIT: Just realised, I actually thought about this in the shower a few weeks ago! My tutor is writing a book on statistics in experimental physics, he should have a good answer
I'll talk to him and let you know what he says...
If we flip 100 coins, probability says there will be 50 heads and 50 tails, but what is the probability of this actually happening in one sample of 100 flips?
Probably not very high! (definitely not 100%, i tried to get a numerical answer but couldnt figure out an expression for the number of possible outcomes that would result in 50 heads, 50 tails
, total number of outcomes is 2^100 )But probability tells you the average in the limit of an infinite number of samples.
So I don't see a problem...
EDIT: Just realised, I actually thought about this in the shower a few weeks ago! My tutor is writing a book on statistics in experimental physics, he should have a good answer
I'll talk to him and let you know what he says...
Galileo was a man of science oppressed by the irrational and superstitious. Today, he is used by the irrational and superstitious who claim they are being oppressed by science - Mark Crislip
