Detecting design or intent in nature

[bennyboy]

But if you are trying to show that biological evolution itself (or anything else in the universe) was created by an intellect, then the updated chart should clearly show why you can't use evidence about human- (or now animal-) created evolutionary systems:

Your chart is wrong. Your conclusion is wrong. Let me explain it this way. Lets define evolutionary system as any system which contains the elements replication, heritable traits, change, and selection. There is some set which contains all the evolutionary systems. Lets call this the "Big Set". Now it is possible that the Big Set only contains evolutionary systems which required intellect. It is also possible that the Big Set contains a mixture of evolutionary systems....some which required intellect and some didn't.

Right. "Evolutionary Systems" IS the "Big Set," and always has been. It consists of those systems which are known to be implemented by intellect (under your definition of that word), and those systems which are not known to be implemented by intellect. The latter COULD be implemented by God, or Space Monkey Bobo, or just be a natural interaction of the 4 elemental forces in the universe.

Which condition is more likely to be true?

Each time you examine an element of the Big Set you can say one of three things about that element.
A) the element required intellect.
B) the element did not require intellect.
C) whether or not the element required intellect cannot be determined.

What I am arguing is that each time you examine an element from the Big Set and it turns out it required intellect, while never coming across an element which did not require an intellect, the likelihood that all the elements in the Big Set required an intellect increases.

Let's say there is a single grain of sand on a table, placed by a 3rd party. However, it is hidden under a napkin, so we cannot see its color. I pose to you the question, "Which is more likely true: that the grain is white or that it is not?" I now start dropping white grains of sand on the table, one after the other, until there are many thousands of them. You would say, "In the Big Set of all grains of sand on this table, there are now 100,000 grains of sand and 99,999 of them are known to be white-- therefore the remaining one is almost certainly white as well." I can contrive to pile millions and millions of grains of sand in this way, and you will get more and more excited, because you will feel more and more confident that you know what's under the napkin: a white grain.

I hope I can meet you sometime, and that you like gambling.