vote Donald trump!?

[Wyrd of Gawd]

Hillary needs to win the Dem voters in the Blue States.  She doesn't need to worry about anyone (Dem or Repub) in the Red States.  They are irrelevant in the general election.  Right now it's doubtful if she will get the needed Dem votes in the Blue States because those people don't really like her.

You continue to pretend that swing states do not exist. Right off the top, there are four states which haven't been reliably red or blue for decades: Florida, Ohio, Nevada and New Mexico, in order of importance. They represent > 21% of the the 270 EV needed to win. Florida is > 10% by itself. Then there are states like Utah (admittedly not very consequential) which have been solidly red for a long time but are so disgusted with Trump, are in play for Hillary. I personally wonder about Texas with its huge Hispanic population as well as my current home of Arizona.

Why don't you show us state by state models, justifying why Trump or Hillary will win in each? Until you do, I think your general model is simplistic and based more on what you want to happen than what is likely to happen.

I'm basing my prognosis on the past couple of elections.  Consequently I give the Repub candidate all of the States that the previous Repub candidates won.  If Hillary is the Dem candidate she will most likely carry most of the Blue States but I figure that she will lose enough of them to lose the election.  Those States include Michigan, Wisconsin, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, and possibly Florida.

Now here's the important part you don't seem to understand:  In a classic Blue v. Red State matchup the Dem candidate doesn't need Ohio, Florida, New Mexico and Nevada.  He will still get 274 votes and he only needs 270 to win.  It would be nice if the Dem candidate won Arizona and Texas but he doesn't really need them to win.  Consequently, from a time and money standpoint it's senseless for the Dem candidate to waste a minute or a penny in any of the Red States.  He needs to focus on the Blue States and he has to retain the big ones at all costs.