This thread needs more Bayes
The fool hath said in his heart, There is a God. They are corrupt, they have done abominable works, there is none that doeth good.
Psalm 14, KJV revised edition
Our server costs ~$56 per month to run. Please consider donating or becoming a Patron to help keep the site running. Help us gain new members by following us on Twitter and liking our page on Facebook!
Current time: April 27, 2024, 3:34 pm
Thread Rating:
|
50/50
|
  (September 1, 2015 at 7:13 pm)Shuffle Wrote:(September 1, 2015 at 11:39 am)Alex K Wrote: This thread needs more Bayes I alluded to it earlier, when I mentioned the medical test, the one with a 16% probability.
I would more generally advocate that one only leave one entrance into their mind(reason), and keep the rest of it rather closed, as it is one hell of a lot easier to shovel shit in than it is to get it out.
If the evidence and reason for you to believe something isn't really any better than the reason you should believe some rural farmer from Arkansas got anally probed by interstellar visitors, then you probably shouldn't.  RE: 50/50
September 1, 2015 at 11:50 pm
(This post was last modified: September 2, 2015 at 12:14 am by IATIA.)
There seems to be a lot of confusion between chance, probabilities, possibilities, permutations, combinations, statistics and even causality. (and a lot of it is wrong) They are not interchangeable and really have nothing to do with the original query. (Except may perhaps causality and in that, the OP is ambiguous)
Back to the OP. "Does anyone agree that the existence of god is a 50/50 chance?" My answer is no as should be yours. Again, the question is somewhat ambiguous, akin to "where are you when you jump off a bridge". 'In the air' is after you jump and 'on the bridge' is before you jump. Anyway, let us try this again. A coin is flipped in the air. Before the coin lands, there is a 50/50 chance that it will be heads or tails. HOWEVER, once the coin lands (unseen at the moment) it is already heads or tails and there is only a 50/50 chance of choosing which way the coin has landed and no longer a 50/50 chance of which way it will land. Before there was a god, there was a 50/50 chance (we will forget about any variables here for the dog and pony show) that it would come into being. Once the god has come into being (or not), it is no longer a question of if but rather which. There is not a 50/50 chance of there being a god (or not), only a 50/50 chance of choosing correctly. This is based on no input except the question of choice. Now, once variables are put into place, god wrote the bible, logic prohibits a god, science has yet to prove there is a god, etc., then the 50/50 chance of choosing correctly changes.
You make people miserable and there's nothing they can do about it, just like god.
-- Homer Simpson God has no place within these walls, just as facts have no place within organized religion. -- Superintendent Chalmers Science is like a blabbermouth who ruins a movie by telling you how it ends. There are some things we don't want to know. Important things. -- Ned Flanders Once something's been approved by the government, it's no longer immoral. -- The Rev Lovejoy
I just realized I defined;
Theist - god wrote the bible Atheist - logic prohibits a god Agnostic - science has yet to prove there is a god
You make people miserable and there's nothing they can do about it, just like god.
-- Homer Simpson God has no place within these walls, just as facts have no place within organized religion. -- Superintendent Chalmers Science is like a blabbermouth who ruins a movie by telling you how it ends. There are some things we don't want to know. Important things. -- Ned Flanders Once something's been approved by the government, it's no longer immoral. -- The Rev Lovejoy 
I've never heard of Theists saying the existence of god is a 50/50 chance;
Theists always seem to assert it's in the 99% to 100% range, in my experience. When asked, I've always personally allowed for a 50/50 chance that god may or may not exist; (but personally, I think it is unlikely). What I do find is 99.999% unlikely is that if there IS a god, that he has ANYTHING to do with any of the world religions. Meaning, He may exist, or he may not, but if he does, he is NOTHING like what the world religions think he is like. Also, while I am willing to allow 50/50 for god's existence, I only think that the likelihood of the existence of an immortal human soul is maybe 3%, and the existence of "other" spirits, IE angels/demons, is maybe 0.5%. (September 1, 2015 at 11:50 pm)IATIA Wrote: There seems to be a lot of confusion between chance, probabilities, possibilities, permutations, combinations, statistics and even causality. (and a lot of it is wrong) They are not interchangeable and really have nothing to do with the original query. (Except may perhaps causality and in that, the OP is ambiguous) There isn't a 50/50 chance to choose correctly, because, first, you cannot choose what you believe, and second it isn't is there a god or not a god. It is, if there is a god, which one. And that is out of the infinite amount of gods. (September 2, 2015 at 12:37 am)Shuffle Wrote: There isn't a 50/50 chance to choose correctly, because, first, you cannot choose what you believe, and second it isn't is there a god or not a god. It is, if there is a god, which one. And that is out of the infinite amount of gods. You started this thread with the option there is a god or there is no god. 50/50. And yes, I can choose what I believe.
You make people miserable and there's nothing they can do about it, just like god.
-- Homer Simpson God has no place within these walls, just as facts have no place within organized religion. -- Superintendent Chalmers Science is like a blabbermouth who ruins a movie by telling you how it ends. There are some things we don't want to know. Important things. -- Ned Flanders Once something's been approved by the government, it's no longer immoral. -- The Rev Lovejoy (September 2, 2015 at 12:43 am)IATIA Wrote:(September 2, 2015 at 12:37 am)Shuffle Wrote: There isn't a 50/50 chance to choose correctly, because, first, you cannot choose what you believe, and second it isn't is there a god or not a god. It is, if there is a god, which one. And that is out of the infinite amount of gods. I really meant the chances that the god they believe in exists. And no, you can't choose what you believe. Just for a fun experiment, believe for a few briefs moments that you can fly. Honestly, legitimately, wholeheartedly believe that you can fly. (September 2, 2015 at 12:46 am)Shuffle Wrote: I really meant the chances that the god they believe in exists. Not what you said, but it is still not 50/50. Their god is nothing more than delusions and/or power mongers/men. (September 2, 2015 at 12:46 am)Shuffle Wrote: And no, you can't choose what you believe. Just for a fun experiment, believe for a few briefs moments that you can fly. Honestly, legitimately, wholeheartedly believe that you can fly. Yes. I can choose to believe that I can really fly. "Honestly, legitimately, wholeheartedly believe that you I can fly". Does not make it so. Then again, I was in the Airborne. We flew lots of times.
You make people miserable and there's nothing they can do about it, just like god.
-- Homer Simpson God has no place within these walls, just as facts have no place within organized religion. -- Superintendent Chalmers Science is like a blabbermouth who ruins a movie by telling you how it ends. There are some things we don't want to know. Important things. -- Ned Flanders Once something's been approved by the government, it's no longer immoral. -- The Rev Lovejoy |
|
« Next Oldest | Next Newest »
|
Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)
