Our server costs ~$56 per month to run. Please consider donating or becoming a Patron to help keep the site running. Help us gain new members by following us on Twitter and liking our page on Facebook!
Current time: June 28, 2024, 8:34 pm
Atheist Forums › Science › Mathematics v
The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem

Poll: Would you switch(and why)?
This poll is closed.
Yes
81.82%
 9 81.82%
No
9.09%
 1 9.09%
I don't know.
9.09%
 1 9.09%
Total 11 vote(s) 100%
* You voted for this item. [Show Results]

Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Thread Modes
The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
Mr.wizard Offline
Member
***
Religious Views: Atheist
Posts: 1494
Threads: 0
Joined: July 26, 2014
Reputation: 14
#121
RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 10:08 am (This post was last modified: March 13, 2016 at 10:08 am by Mr.wizard.)
Ya this is a lost cause
Find
Reply
ErGingerbreadMandude Offline
Ukgd
Religious Views: Influenced influences
Posts: 5356
Threads: 178
Joined: June 28, 2015
Reputation: 35
#122
RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 10:09 am
(March 13, 2016 at 10:07 am)Mr.wizard Wrote:
(March 13, 2016 at 9:59 am)pool the great Wrote: The chances of you getting a goat behind the door you initially chose is not 50-50 given that you don't know what's behind all the three doors. However after you know that behind one of a door there isn't a car, your chance of having chosen a car or goat initially essentially becomes 50-50

Wow I don't think you understand how this game works at all. He is never going to open a car, he will always open a goat because he knows whats behind the doors.

Says who?
The question don't.
Find
Reply
ErGingerbreadMandude Offline
Ukgd
Religious Views: Influenced influences
Posts: 5356
Threads: 178
Joined: June 28, 2015
Reputation: 35
#123
RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 10:10 am
Holy shit I can't believe I said that. Retract that statement. Retract retract.
Find
Reply
Mr.wizard Offline
Member
***
Religious Views: Atheist
Posts: 1494
Threads: 0
Joined: July 26, 2014
Reputation: 14
#124
RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 10:10 am
(March 13, 2016 at 10:09 am)pool the great Wrote:
(March 13, 2016 at 10:07 am)Mr.wizard Wrote: Wow I don't think you understand how this game works at all. He is never going to open a car, he will always open a goat because he knows whats behind the doors.

Says who?
The question don't.

Its the Monty Hall problem, from "let's make a deal", It's how the game is played.
Find
Reply
ErGingerbreadMandude Offline
Ukgd
Religious Views: Influenced influences
Posts: 5356
Threads: 178
Joined: June 28, 2015
Reputation: 35
#125
RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 10:12 am
(March 13, 2016 at 10:10 am)Mr.wizard Wrote:
(March 13, 2016 at 10:09 am)pool the great Wrote: Says who?
The question don't.

Its the Monty Hall problem, from "let's make a deal", It's how the game is played.

OK sorry about that, I didn't read your post properly before replying.

Of course I know that the door the host opens won't have a car behind it.
Find
Reply
Excited Penguin Offline
Retired Soap Salesman
Religious Views: Equanimity
Posts: 9479
Threads: 116
Joined: July 5, 2015
Reputation: 23
#126
RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 10:14 am
Can anyone answer a simple question?

Why do you think initially it's 1/3 to pick a car?
Find
Reply
ErGingerbreadMandude Offline
Ukgd
Religious Views: Influenced influences
Posts: 5356
Threads: 178
Joined: June 28, 2015
Reputation: 35
#127
RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 10:16 am
(March 13, 2016 at 10:14 am)Excited Penguin Wrote: Can anyone answer a simple question?

Why do you think initially it's 1/3 to pick a car?

Because there is one car and 3 options to pick from
Find
Reply
ErGingerbreadMandude Offline
Ukgd
Religious Views: Influenced influences
Posts: 5356
Threads: 178
Joined: June 28, 2015
Reputation: 35
#128
RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 10:21 am (This post was last modified: March 13, 2016 at 10:22 am by ErGingerbreadMandude.)
This is my final post for objecting why you guys are wrong. If you still don't get it, then idk wtf

If you pick a car in your first try then you will not get a car if you switch.

Therefore it is beneficial to switch only if you initially randomly choose a door with a goat behind it.

After the host opens a door behind which you will find a goat, you will have a 50-50 chance to have initially chosen a goat.

Since you have a 50-50 chance of having chosen a goat initially, you have a 50-50 chance of getting a car if you switch.

Therefore it is not beneficial to switch.
Find
Reply
ErGingerbreadMandude Offline
Ukgd
Religious Views: Influenced influences
Posts: 5356
Threads: 178
Joined: June 28, 2015
Reputation: 35
#129
RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 10:32 am (This post was last modified: March 13, 2016 at 10:33 am by ErGingerbreadMandude.)
But do I get a thank you note? Some appreciation? At least a Nobel prize? No.
Dammit. Tongue
Find
Reply
Homeless Nutter Offline
Senior Member
****
Religious Views: No, thank you.
Posts: 3541
Threads: 0
Joined: January 20, 2015
Reputation: 35
#130
RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 10:37 am
(March 13, 2016 at 10:21 am)pool the great Wrote: [...]
Since you have a 50-50 chance of having chosen a goat initially, [...]

LOL... How do you figure that? Since initially you were choosing from 3 doors, behind which there are 2 goats and 1 car - therefore you have a 66-33 chance of having initially chosen the goat. It does not matter, that one of the goat-doors was opened afterwards - your chances of having picked a goat are the same.
"The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one." - George Bernard Shaw
Find
Reply


Atheist Forums › Science › Mathematics v
The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem

Possibly Related Threads...
Thread Author Replies Views Last Post
  Solving a system of two trigonometric equations FlatAssembler 20 2112 August 9, 2023 at 11:40 pm
Last Post: LinuxGal
  What's the probability that 3 out of 23 people will share the same birthday? FlatAssembler 28 3658 February 16, 2022 at 12:15 am
Last Post: Paleophyte
  Improving problem solving. RozKek 17 3926 January 10, 2017 at 9:51 am
Last Post: ErGingerbreadMandude
  Dividing by variable when solving algebraic equation GrandizerII 56 8747 October 31, 2016 at 1:06 am
Last Post: Kernel Sohcahtoa
  Frog probability Aractus 17 3897 April 22, 2016 at 9:16 pm
Last Post: Aractus
  Probability question: names in hats robvalue 78 10831 March 19, 2016 at 6:39 pm
Last Post: emjay
  The Monty Hall problem Marsellus Wallace 11 4020 April 13, 2014 at 4:40 pm
Last Post: Coffee Jesus
  The Monty Hall problem. Tiberius 47 16511 February 26, 2013 at 11:48 am
Last Post: PyroManiac
  Man refuses a check for a million for solving one of the hardest math problems. leo-rcc 12 5839 March 29, 2010 at 10:27 pm
Last Post: tavarish
  The probability of the accuracy of probability itself? Etc. Edwardo Piet 15 6470 February 9, 2009 at 1:54 pm
Last Post: chatpilot



Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)