The Long March 5B Is Coming!

[Anomalocaris]

A May 4 update from the Aerospace Corporation predicts reentry will occur May 9 at 12:37 a.m. Eastern (04:37 Universal time), with a margin of error of plus or minus 28 hours.

Russian space agency Roscosmos also stated May 4 that its Automated Warning System on Hazardous Situations in Outer Space (ASPOS OKP) indicated that the Long March 5B was set for an uncontrolled reentry.

Calculations by Russian experts indicate a reentry window of 9:00 p.m. May 7 to 4:00 p.m. May 9 Eastern, with more refined predictions to follow in the coming days.

China has yet to comment on the status of the Long March 5B. The country is planning 10 more launches through 2022 of various spacecraft and launch vehicles to construct its three-module space station.  

China is currently preparing to send the Tianzhou-2 cargo spacecraft to Tianhe in the next few weeks using a Long March 7 rocket. A first crewed mission, Shenzhou-12, is expected to send three astronauts to the new orbital outpost in June.

Notably, two more launches of the Long March 5B are expected in 2022 to send the Wentian and Mengtian experiment modules to join Tianhe in orbit.

It is unknown if the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT), which designed and manufactures the Long March 5B, has planned alterations to the rocket or launch profile which would allow the core stage to either deorbit or fall to Earth on a ballistic trajectory.

The Long March 5B was designed specifically for launching modules for the Chinese space station into low Earth orbit. A test flight in 2020 also saw the core stage reach orbital velocity. That incident saw the stage reenter over the Atlantic Ocean with local reports suggesting debris from that 20-ton stage appears to have survived reentry and landed in the African nation of Côte d’Ivoire.

Space News: https://spacenews.com/chinese-rocket-sta...und-may-8/

The Launch profile of this particular rocket model can’t be changed to make sure the rocket falls back ballistically at the end of the mission.  

Most rockets shed stages as it ascends into orbit.  The shed stages themselves never reach orbital speed, so they fall ballistically back to earth soon after being discarded.   Only a small upper orbital insertion stage go with the payload into orbit.  Once the payload is in orbit, the insertion stage, being small, burns up in the atmosphere when it renters.

The Chinese apparently decided to dispense with multi-stage design philosophy.     There is only one single big core stage.  It goes directly from ground all the way into orbit with the payload.   The only things it sheds are 4 strap on boosters that helps it clear lower atmopshere.   It can’t change its launch profile to fall ballistically back to earth, because if it does, there is nothing on top of it to push the payload into orbit.

So the drama is likely to be repeated as they send up the other major components of the space station.

[Fireball]

Space News: https://spacenews.com/chinese-rocket-sta...und-may-8/

The Launch profile of this particular rocket model can’t be changed to make sure the rocket falls back ballistically at the end of the mission.  

Most rockets shed stages as it ascends into orbit.  The shed stages themselves never reach orbital speed, so they fall ballistically back to earth soon after being discarded.   Only a small upper orbital insertion stage go with the payload into orbit.  Once the payload is in orbit, the insertion stage, being small, burns up in the atmosphere when it renters.

The Chinese apparently decided to dispense with multi-stage design philosophy.     There is only one single big core stage.  It goes directly from ground all the way into orbit with the payload.   The only things it sheds are 4 strap on boosters that helps it clear lower atmopshere.   It can’t change its launch profile to fall ballistically back to earth, because if it does, there is nothing on top of it to push the payload into orbit.

So the drama is likely to be repeated as they send up the other major components of the space station.

So, they've gone from not giving a shit if a failed launch kills their own people, to not caring that the potential cost of reparations to other countries is cheaper than development costs to keep it from happening.

[brewer]

The Launch profile of this particular rocket model can’t be changed to make sure the rocket falls back ballistically at the end of the mission.  

Most rockets shed stages as it ascends into orbit.  The shed stages themselves never reach orbital speed, so they fall ballistically back to earth soon after being discarded.   Only a small upper orbital insertion stage go with the payload into orbit.  Once the payload is in orbit, the insertion stage, being small, burns up in the atmosphere when it renters.

The Chinese apparently decided to dispense with multi-stage design philosophy.     There is only one single big core stage.  It goes directly from ground all the way into orbit with the payload.   The only things it sheds are 4 strap on boosters that helps it clear lower atmopshere.   It can’t change its launch profile to fall ballistically back to earth, because if it does, there is nothing on top of it to push the payload into orbit.

So the drama is likely to be repeated as they send up the other major components of the space station.

So, they've gone from not giving a shit if a failed launch kills their own people, to not caring that the potential cost of reparations to other countries is cheaper than development costs to keep it from happening.

They're going to potentially give millions of people a great light show. That's reparations enough.

[Anomalocaris]

The Launch profile of this particular rocket model can’t be changed to make sure the rocket falls back ballistically at the end of the mission.  

Most rockets shed stages as it ascends into orbit.  The shed stages themselves never reach orbital speed, so they fall ballistically back to earth soon after being discarded.   Only a small upper orbital insertion stage go with the payload into orbit.  Once the payload is in orbit, the insertion stage, being small, burns up in the atmosphere when it renters.

The Chinese apparently decided to dispense with multi-stage design philosophy.     There is only one single big core stage.  It goes directly from ground all the way into orbit with the payload.   The only things it sheds are 4 strap on boosters that helps it clear lower atmopshere.   It can’t change its launch profile to fall ballistically back to earth, because if it does, there is nothing on top of it to push the payload into orbit.

So the drama is likely to be repeated as they send up the other major components of the space station.

So, they've gone from not giving a shit if a failed launch kills their own people, to not caring that the potential cost of reparations to other countries is cheaper than development costs to keep it from happening.

seriously, no one rational would care about such reparations because the probability of the rocket landing somewhere doing damage is infinitesimal.   adding weight to the rocket design to enable it to do a control de orbit maneuver would cost ballpark of $50,000 per pound in increased launch cost.   A deorbit packaging weighing 300 lbs would cost them $15 million in increased launch cost.   The odds of the rocket doing $15 million in damage when reentering is for all practical purposes zero.

even if remains of an engine hits a walmart it would be unlikely to do $15 million in damages.  how much reparation do you hear about airlines paying when parts fall off their planes?   

the chance of this rocket doing damage is about the same in order of magnitude as airliners losing piece in flight and the falling piece doing damage on any given day.

They are being rational.

[brewer]

I heard on the news tonight that Space Force refused to blow it out of the sky.

Who even thought to ask?

[Anomalocaris]

I heard on the news tonight that Space Force refused to blow it out of the sky.

Who even thought to ask?

how are you going to blow it out of the sky?   it is already nonfunctional.   it is coasting on momentum.   it doesn’t need to be airworthy to keep staying up there.   it doesn’t matter if it is shattered.  it wasn’t going to come down in one piece anyway.    it was always only particular pieces of it made of high temperature alloys abd ceremics that was going to survive reentry and reach the surface.

[Fireball]

So, they've gone from not giving a shit if a failed launch kills their own people, to not caring that the potential cost of reparations to other countries is cheaper than development costs to keep it from happening.

seriously, no one rational would care about such reparations because the probability of the rocket landing somewhere doing damage is infinitesimal.   adding weight to the rocket design to enable it to do a control de orbit maneuver would cost ballpark of $50,000 per pound in increased launch cost.   A deorbit packaging weighing 300 lbs would cost them $15 million in increased launch cost.   The odds of the rocket doing $15 million in damage when reentering is for all practical purposes zero.

even if remains of an engine hits a walmart it would be unlikely to do $15 million in damages.  how much reparation do you hear about airlines paying when parts fall off their planes?   

the chance of this rocket doing damage is about the same in order of magnitude as airliners losing piece in flight and the falling piece doing damage on any given day.

They are being rational.

OK. Go find the information that proves that insurance companies the airlines use don't pay out. I'll wait.

[Anomalocaris]

seriously, no one rational would care about such reparations because the probability of the rocket landing somewhere doing damage is infinitesimal.   adding weight to the rocket design to enable it to do a control de orbit maneuver would cost ballpark of $50,000 per pound in increased launch cost.   A deorbit packaging weighing 300 lbs would cost them $15 million in increased launch cost.   The odds of the rocket doing $15 million in damage when reentering is for all practical purposes zero.

even if remains of an engine hits a walmart it would be unlikely to do $15 million in damages.  how much reparation do you hear about airlines paying when parts fall off their planes?   

the chance of this rocket doing damage is about the same in order of magnitude as airliners losing piece in flight and the falling piece doing damage on any given day.

They are being rational.

OK. Go find the information that proves that insurance companies the airlines use don't pay out. I'll wait.

really? You make a claim and demand people prove you false?

And even if the airline pays some insurance premium against occurrences the parts falling off the plane, And even if the insurance company had paid out such claims before, you really think it will be a rational financial choice for the Chinese government to increase the cost of launch by tens of millions of dollars per launch, just to guard against the possibility of having to make a comparable payout?

[brewer]

I heard on the news tonight that Space Force refused to blow it out of the sky.

Who even thought to ask?

how are you going to blow it out of the sky?   it is already nonfunctional.   it is coasting on momentum.   it doesn’t need to be airworthy to keep staying up there.   it doesn’t matter if it is shattered.  it wasn’t going to come down in one piece anyway.    it was always only particular pieces of it made of high temperature alloys abd ceremics that was going to survive reentry and reach the surface.

I just report stupid, I don't explain it.

[no one]

Fingers crossed

If I can collect bloody dog killed by space debris, I will have consumed all of the power ups.