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What's the probability that 3 out of 23 people will share the same birthday?
#11
RE: What's the probability that 3 out of 23 people will share the same birthday?
(January 21, 2022 at 11:33 am)FlatAssembler Wrote:
(January 21, 2022 at 8:49 am)brewer Wrote: I don't share my birthday with anybody, the cake is all mine damnit.

This is a serious question, and I do not expect joke answers.

I'm not sure that is a valid expectation. Can you show me the math?
I don't have an anger problem, I have an idiot problem




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#12
RE: What's the probability that 3 out of 23 people will share the same birthday?
It's 50/50. Either it happens or it doesn't.












/s
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#13
RE: What's the probability that 3 out of 23 people will share the same birthday?
(January 21, 2022 at 3:03 pm)brewer Wrote:
(January 21, 2022 at 11:33 am)FlatAssembler Wrote: This is a serious question, and I do not expect joke answers.

I'm not sure that is a valid expectation. Can you show me the math?

Here is a program doing numerical calculations, which I do not see why they would not count as math: https://flatassembler.github.io/birthday_paradox
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#14
RE: What's the probability that 3 out of 23 people will share the same birthday?
(January 22, 2022 at 6:43 am)FlatAssembler Wrote:
(January 21, 2022 at 3:03 pm)brewer Wrote: I'm not sure that is a valid expectation. Can you show me the math?

Here is a program doing numerical calculations, which I do not see why they would not count as math: https://flatassembler.github.io/birthday_paradox

Your programme is flawed. If I enter '100' in the collisions field, the probability computes at 0%. This means that in a group of 23 people, there is no chance that they all share the same birthday. While such a coincidence is statistically unlikely, the probability is non-zero.

Boru
‘Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted.’ Ralph Waldo Emerson
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#15
RE: What's the probability that 3 out of 23 people will share the same birthday?
(January 22, 2022 at 6:43 am)FlatAssembler Wrote:
(January 21, 2022 at 3:03 pm)brewer Wrote: I'm not sure that is a valid expectation. Can you show me the math?

Here is a program doing numerical calculations, which I do not see why they would not count as math: https://flatassembler.github.io/birthday_paradox

You're back on the birthday thing. I want to see the math for the odds of a funny post showing up in a serious thread.

[Image: giphy.gif]
I don't have an anger problem, I have an idiot problem




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#16
RE: What's the probability that 3 out of 23 people will share the same birthday?
I had a classmate who shared the same birthday and birthyear as mine. Out of 2 people that's a 100% chance...kind of skews the odds doesn't it?
 “Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe.” ~Albert Einstein                                                 
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#17
RE: What's the probability that 3 out of 23 people will share the same birthday?
(January 22, 2022 at 1:35 pm)arewethereyet Wrote: I had a classmate who shared the same birthday and birthyear as mine.  Out of 2 people that's a 100% chance...kind of skews the odds doesn't it?

I once escorted a former girlfriend to a Leap Day Party. Out of the 120 (or so) principal invitees, 100% percent had the same birthday - 29 February.

Boru
‘Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted.’ Ralph Waldo Emerson
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#18
RE: What's the probability that 3 out of 23 people will share the same birthday?
(January 22, 2022 at 2:11 pm)BrianSoddingBoru4 Wrote:
(January 22, 2022 at 1:35 pm)arewethereyet Wrote: I had a classmate who shared the same birthday and birthyear as mine.  Out of 2 people that's a 100% chance...kind of skews the odds doesn't it?

I once escorted a former girlfriend to a Leap Day Party. Out of the 120 (or so) principal invitees, 100% percent had the same birthday - 29 February.

Boru

That's my wedding anniversary. In 2024 we will have had 8 anniversaries...yet it feels like 30 already. Angel
 “Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe.” ~Albert Einstein                                                 
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#19
RE: What's the probability that 3 out of 23 people will share the same birthday?
(January 22, 2022 at 7:02 am)BrianSoddingBoru4 Wrote:
(January 22, 2022 at 6:43 am)FlatAssembler Wrote: Here is a program doing numerical calculations, which I do not see why they would not count as math: https://flatassembler.github.io/birthday_paradox

Your programme is flawed. If I enter '100' in the collisions field, the probability computes at 0%. This means that in a group of 23 people, there is no chance that they all share the same birthday. While such a coincidence is statistically unlikely, the probability is non-zero.

Boru
So, where do you think the error lies? https://flatassembler.github.io/birthday_paradox.aec
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#20
RE: What's the probability that 3 out of 23 people will share the same birthday?
(January 24, 2022 at 2:06 am)FlatAssembler Wrote:
(January 22, 2022 at 7:02 am)BrianSoddingBoru4 Wrote: Your programme is flawed. If I enter '100' in the collisions field, the probability computes at 0%. This means that in a group of 23 people, there is no chance that they all share the same birthday. While such a coincidence is statistically unlikely, the probability is non-zero.

Boru
So, where do you think the error lies? https://flatassembler.github.io/birthday_paradox.aec

The error is that you do not understand any of it. 

Is that clear enough?
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