The next Civil War

[Rev. Rye]

... and I'm willing to lay a large wager that the National Guard will be out in force.

Frankly, the only reason January 6 went as far as it did was because Trump was absolutely willing to enable it as much as possible. Unless Biden’s in the post-awareness stages of dementia, there’s no way he wouldn’t be willing to deploy the National Guard. Most likely, with a plan specifically designed to stop any rioting from getting as bad as it did that day.

[Thumpalumpacus]

... and I'm willing to lay a large wager that the National Guard will be out in force.

Frankly, the only reason January 6 went as far as it did was because Trump was absolutely willing to enable it as much as possible. Unless Biden’s in the post-awareness stages of dementia, there’s no way he wouldn’t be willing to deploy the National Guard. Most likely, with a plan specifically designed to stop any rioting from getting as bad as it did that day.

He's also going to have subordinates pushing this in order to avoid a repeat. Even if Biden is too far gone, a big NG presence will be on the ground anyway.

And quite frankly, those NG commanders will likely have their troops on standby and ready to go, because they won't want another "why weren't you there?" scenario. True, Biden et al may not want camo troops on street corners -- that's a bad look in a free and fair election --but it's no worse, and probably better than a repeat of the same shit, and they will likely get the plans together for rapid response, or CYA, if nothing else.

But a colonel may better ask forgiveness than permission, and might even get a star out of it. At the very least forced to resign in rank knowing that he did what he could.

But I'm pretty sure this won't devolve down to O-6 (colonel) level anyway. I'm pretty sure there will be standing orders to prevent any re-enactment.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

I think there's a good chance Trump won't stick around if he loses.  There's a good possibility he could end up in jail if he does.  Emigration is a sure thing, fighting it out in court is less so.

If he were a normal man, I’d agree. But given his narcissism and megalomania, I don’t think he’d do a runner. He needs the adulation of his gaggle of useful idiots (which he isn’t going to get in some non-extradition country) and he really, truly believes he can beat all the charges against him.

Boru

Looks like I nailed it - Trump insinuated to Elon Musk that he would flee to Venezuela if he loses the election. Which means he won't.

Boru

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

On reflection, I think a civil war in the event of a Trump loss is inevitable. It won't be a civil war in the usual sense, but an internal one within the Republican Party. While Trump is clearly in control right now, a loss in November is going to finish him as a political force, since the message will be clear that MAGA is a brand that cannot win. I look to see the GOP fracture into at least two (possibly more) parties - the MAGAts and more traditional Republicans (remember those?).

Boru

[Fireball]

^ Other people agree with you. As long as the leopards only eat other's faces...
Civil War

[Thumpalumpacus]

On reflection, I think a civil war in the event of a Trump loss is inevitable. It won't be a civil war in the usual sense, but an internal one within the Republican Party. While Trump is clearly in control right now, a loss in November is going to finish him as a political force, since the message will be clear that MAGA is a brand that cannot win. I look to see the GOP fracture into at least two (possibly more) parties - the MAGAts and more traditional Republicans (remember those?).

Boru

I read exactly this line of reasoning in an op-ed on The Hill yesterday. In part:

That aside, a Trump loss inevitably means an internal civil war within the Republican Party. I believe a “war” is inevitable between the all-powerful Trump forces and those who want to move on from the Trump era and win the White House in 2028 without any Trump family members on the ticket.

Like all civil wars, this one could be brutal, because the GOP opposition forces see in Trumpism a political dead-end with a shrinking voter base. I publicly left the Republican Party Jan. 2021 thanks to Trump’s toxic brand. Today, identifying as a Republican is not about conservative governing principles but automatic loyalty to Trump, with his MAGA troops in control of the party machinery from top to bottom.

In 2016, the “Trumplican Party” was born (some would say “hijacked.”) After Trump’s unexpected victory, Republican Party leaders and activists who initially supported someone other than Trump were purged, resigned in disgust or else acquiesced to him.

After Trump’s loss in 2020, it became an act of disloyalty for Republicans to deny that Trump actually won reelection. So did the failure to defend or excuse his actions on Jan. 6 or his legal problems. So did the act of backing an alternative 2024 candidate.

To have one family in complete control of a major national political party is an aberration in our country. Daughter-in-law Lara Trump, installed as co-chair of the Republican National Committee in March, naively spoke the truth in February when she said of its fundraising, “Every single penny will go to the number one and the only job of the RNC — that is electing Donald J. Trump as president of the United States…”

Naturally, down-ballot candidates, officeholders and lowly party officials did not appreciate her honesty about the family mission.

The author goes on to suggest that if the Trumps are overthrown within the party, Kinzinger would be the natural leader to put the party back together. I'm not so sure I buy that.

ETA:

^ Other people agree with you. As long as the leopards only eat other's faces...
Civil War

That's the same op-ed I quote above, yes.

[AFTT47]

If Trump loses, one would think the Republican party as a whole will be badly damaged. The MAGAts will be totally discredited and will hopefully crawl back into the foul, putrid hole they came from. But what of the so-called "traditional" Republicans? Those who fell in line with the MAGAts will not be able to escape their shame. As Liz Cheney told them, "Some day Trump will be gone but your dishonor will remain."

I wouldn't be surprised to see those words preserved in history like some of the founding father's famous quotes.

[The Grand Nudger]

If there's going to be a second Civil War, it's going to be an asymmetrical one. And at least, unlike a lot of asymmetrical wars, I can't imagine that the rebels are going to gain the hearts and minds of the populace at large.

They already have the hearts and minds of the communities they'll need from an operational standpoint.  It's an antimajoritarian separatist movement, though, and they don't want your hearts and minds anywhere but a slab.  They keep telling people that, and no one believes them.  To bastardize tim walz....when someone builds an army, they plan to use it.

[The Grand Nudger]

The author goes on to suggest that if the Trumps are overthrown within the party, Kinzinger would be the natural leader to put the party back together. I'm not so sure I buy that.

LiZinger 2028.  There are already tshirts.....

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

On reflection, I think a civil war in the event of a Trump loss is inevitable. It won't be a civil war in the usual sense, but an internal one within the Republican Party. While Trump is clearly in control right now, a loss in November is going to finish him as a political force, since the message will be clear that MAGA is a brand that cannot win. I look to see the GOP fracture into at least two (possibly more) parties - the MAGAts and more traditional Republicans (remember those?).

Boru

I read exactly this line of reasoning in an op-ed on The Hill yesterday. In part:

That aside, a Trump loss inevitably means an internal civil war within the Republican Party. I believe a “war” is inevitable between the all-powerful Trump forces and those who want to move on from the Trump era and win the White House in 2028 without any Trump family members on the ticket.

Like all civil wars, this one could be brutal, because the GOP opposition forces see in Trumpism a political dead-end with a shrinking voter base. I publicly left the Republican Party Jan. 2021 thanks to Trump’s toxic brand. Today, identifying as a Republican is not about conservative governing principles but automatic loyalty to Trump, with his MAGA troops in control of the party machinery from top to bottom.

In 2016, the “Trumplican Party” was born (some would say “hijacked.”) After Trump’s unexpected victory, Republican Party leaders and activists who initially supported someone other than Trump were purged, resigned in disgust or else acquiesced to him.

After Trump’s loss in 2020, it became an act of disloyalty for Republicans to deny that Trump actually won reelection. So did the failure to defend or excuse his actions on Jan. 6 or his legal problems. So did the act of backing an alternative 2024 candidate.

To have one family in complete control of a major national political party is an aberration in our country. Daughter-in-law Lara Trump, installed as co-chair of the Republican National Committee in March, naively spoke the truth in February when she said of its fundraising, “Every single penny will go to the number one and the only job of the RNC — that is electing Donald J. Trump as president of the United States…”

Naturally, down-ballot candidates, officeholders and lowly party officials did not appreciate her honesty about the family mission.

The author goes on to suggest that if the Trumps are overthrown within the party, Kinzinger would be the natural leader to put the party back together. I'm not so sure I buy that.

ETA:  

^ Other people agree with you. As long as the leopards only eat other's faces...
Civil War

That's the same op-ed I quote above, yes.

I promise I thought of it on my own. For realzies.

Boru