Can anyone explain where he's going with this 1,2,3,4,5,6 thing?

It all started with this random question from Holubice regarding the statistic of earthquakes.

(April 13, 2011 at 10:57 am)Holubice Wrote: Philip, wait you too a couple of months after August. Are you a mathematician? Do you how the probability computing?

I don't completely know why he pulled that out though... I'm guessing he is trying to predict earthquakes

(April 18, 2011 at 6:23 am)Jax Wrote: May I ask you what is the point of computing this equation? I seriously don't want to waste my time on something as redundant as this.
And also, why do you want to know if I am good at maths, physics and biology?

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You have posted this 'manifesto':



So you think it has sense all those things below had come true just by chance:









I don't say is true or not, I just want to compute the possibility it could come true by themself by chance. That's why I need to discuss with persons good in Math, Physic science and Biology.

P.S.
But, please, in the meantime have in mind your best friend 400 hundreds sits/guests wedding dinner restaurant...



And all the thousands of knifes, spoons, glasses and bottles perfectly aligned ready and waiting for the guests...

Yes Holobitce

It is all random and due to evolution...

The 'skydaddy' ideal is for those who have no education or understanding in science

(April 18, 2011 at 5:39 am)Holubice Wrote: Can you compute this combination? And was you good in maths, physic and biology at school?

I already answered in this post:

Me! Wrote:Actually it's not possible to say. He told us we get to choose 6 numbers, but not how many numbers we get to choose from.

If we have N numbers to choose from, on the first roll the probability of getting a given chosen number is 1/N. On the second, the probability is 1/(N-1) (since there is one less ball), on the third 1/(N-2) and so on up to 1/(N-5).

compounding these probablilites: P = 1/N * 1/(N-1) * ... 1/(N-5)

or equivalently, P = (N-6)! / N! where N! = 1 * 2 * 3 * 4 * .... N

This is the probability for our numbers to come out in a given order, but it doesn't matter which order our numbers come out in. There are 6! ways to arrange 6 numbers, so our chance of winning is increased by this factor:

P = (N-6)! 6! / N!

But since we don't have N for this case, we can't determine the odds of winning.

For your example of N=90, the probability of winning is just 84!*6! / 90! .

But I don't see the relevance.

I'm in my final year of a physics masters degree and expecting a first, so I'm fairly good at physics. There's a lot of mathematical content, and I've also spent a fair bit of time reading up on topics in mathematics in my spare time, so I know a fair bit about math too. As for biology, I can't say that I know much beyond the basics.

Are you going to get to the point?

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Oh, I see, this again...

(April 18, 2011 at 7:45 am)Holubice Wrote: So you think it has sense all those things below had come true just by chance:

*pictures*

I don't say is true or not, I just want to compute the possibility it could come true by themself by chance. That's why I need to discuss with persons good in Math, Physic science and Biology.

No one ever claimed that a brain or an eye just happened to assemble itself out of a soup of it's molecular constituents, which is what the lottery analogy would suggest.
Evolution is a slow, incremental process and it IS NOT random. If you think that the theory of evolution says that different species just appear by chance, you don't understand the theory of evolution.
Mutations are random, not evolution.

(April 18, 2011 at 7:45 am)Holubice Wrote:

(April 18, 2011 at 6:23 am)Jax Wrote: May I ask you what is the point of computing this equation? I seriously don't want to waste my time on something as redundant as this.
And also, why do you want to know if I am good at maths, physics and biology?

.


You have posted this 'manifesto':

---

So you think it has sense all those things below had come true just by chance:

---

I don't say is true or not, I just want to compute the possibility it could come true by themself by chance. That's why I need to discuss with persons good in Math, Physic science and Biology.

Really? Weren't you asking for the probability of earthquakes before? How did it instantly change to this? Mind to stay on your topics please?

Quote:P.S.
But, please, in the meantime have in mind your best friend 400 hundreds sits/guests wedding dinner restaurant...

And all the thousands of knifes, spoons, glasses and bottles perfectly aligned ready and waiting for the guests...

But my best friend is underaged to get married... And I'm sure he can't afford 400 guests.

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Perhaps you should do some reading on Abiogenesis.

(April 18, 2011 at 7:54 am)lilphil1989 Wrote: I'm in my final year of a physics masters degree and expecting a first, so I'm fairly good at physics. There's a lot of mathematical content, and I've also spent a fair bit of time reading up on topics in mathematics in my spare time, so I know a fair bit about math too. As for biology, I can't say that I know much beyond the basics.
Are you going to get to the point?

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Great Philip, you are my man!

(April 18, 2011 at 7:54 am)lilphil1989 Wrote: No one ever claimed that a brain or an eye just happened to assemble itself out of a soup of it's molecular constituents, which is what the lottery analogy would suggest. Evolution is a slow, incremental process and it IS NOT random. If you think that the theory of evolution says that different species just appear by chance, you don't understand the theory of evolution. Mutations are random, not evolution.

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I know evolution theory and Darwin books. But you have to ponder out that me and you, typing in a computer in two different sites of the planet, we are an event, in other words a long series of events has to be happen to get this result. Events in physics, events in chemistry, events in biology... We can compute the possibility of each event. You know that when an event is the combination of two events you have to multiply their possibility. And if just one of these events disappear along the way, me and you couldn't chat together. Anybody know that we are an exceptional and rare event. But have you ever wondered how rare?

So... Let's compute possibility event "MAN"

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(April 18, 2011 at 8:10 am)Jax Wrote: Really? Weren't you asking for the probability of earthquakes before? How did it instantly change to this? Mind to stay on your topics please?

Jax, I'm typing in 4 different Atheist Forums all together right now... It's possible I get lost along the way... I'm not cheating you. Pay attention at my computing with Philip.



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But calculating the a priori probability of an event that has already happened is pointless.

Imagine if, exactly one year ago I'd thought: Hey, let's calculate the probability that in exactly a years time I'll be sat at a desk in room 39B in a certain student accomodation, wearing orange socks, discussing earthquakes and evolution on an atheist forum whilst taking a break from studying for exams, and next to me will be a cup of tea which is approximately 40% full and has gone cold .

I'd get a vanishly small probability for such an event. So what? It's already happened, so computing that probability doesn't tell me anything anyway.

(April 18, 2011 at 6:37 am)Skipper Wrote: Can anyone explain where he's going with this 1,2,3,4,5,6 thing?

To keep it simple, its a rehashed version of the old watchmaker argument... Booooring

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@Holubice: When you are talking bulshit, using different words won't make it smell better

(April 18, 2011 at 10:31 am)lilphil1989 Wrote: But calculating the a priori probability of an event that has already happened is pointless... I'd get a vanishly small probability for such an event. So what? It's already happened, so computing that probability doesn't tell me anything anyway.

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OK. I can accept your assertions. "Man" is just an event occurred accidentally. Basically it had to be possible to start from them:



...and to arrive here in a couple of billions of years:



...just thanks to them-self. And you have no doubts about that. Completely no doubts.
To have it a huge series of event have to occur, and you have to compute them with the combinatory computing of mathematics. To explain, suppose you have 90 numbers of a bingo and you extract a number (putting it back all the time) if you want to have ten times the number '1' you note that...



Just one possibility over 34.867.844.010 billions of billions...

And we are talking about a combination in a very small range (90 numbers) and a very short series (10 extraction). Because anybody support the evolution theory of Darwin-Wallace admit a rare event has happen, but curiously he avoids to compute how rare it has been. And you know better than me that when two events have to occur together (even if not simultaneously) you have to multiply their possibility (like in my example). When events are so highly improbable and when they are so many throughout the Physics, Chemistry and Biology you obtain one possibility over a number much larger than universe...