I'm not a supporter of his, but my prediction is, he will win. Charisma and money get you far.

(June 19, 2016 at 2:51 pm)c172 Wrote: I'm not a supporter of his, but my prediction is, he will win. Charisma and money get you far.

Charisma? He only appeals to a certain audience. According to recent polls, he's viewed unfavorably by 70 percent of the people. Now, that doesn't mean he's not getting the votes of 70 percent of the people, but if there was a more attractive candidate on the other side of the spectrum, he would have a very hard time getting his feet on the ground.

Anyone who thinks Trump will win is not paying attention. Check out these numbers. Something will have to change very dramatically for him to even have a chance.

(June 19, 2016 at 2:51 pm)c172 Wrote: I'm not a supporter of his, but my prediction is, he will win. Charisma and money get you far.

He held a rally in Phoenix yesterday - and if there is any state where that fuckhead should do well, aside from Texass, it is Errorzona.  He drew 5,000 people to a venue which seats 14,000.  The idiot is wearing out his welcome but, as Abs says, what can save him is if idiot progressives don't bother to vote.

Did people think Ronald Regan could become president? Yes or no? That's why you shouldn't underestimate Donald.

Reagan was ahead in the polls before election day.  Helped in large degree by John Anderson.

Nobody doubted Reagan. Disapproval of Carter was so high, he had to fend off Ted Kennedy in a primary challenge as the incumbent.

This election really has only one historical parallel, in 1964, and while this may not be that sort of landslide, I don't see Trump doing much better.

Here's the thing about Trump: it's apparently next to impossible to get him to think before he speaks. If anything was going to prompt him to be more circumspect in his words, you'd think becoming the presumptive nominee for the general election would do that, but it hasn't: if anything, he's gotten worse and worse now that he's "safe" with regards to the nomination. We are heading into a general election in which on of the candidates is outwardly abhorrent to the majority of people outside of the core conservative base (the racist nutjobs whose vote has been on lockdown since day one anyway) and seemingly has no filter, nor ability to understand when his words are alarming or not 100% correct.

That worked out fine for him when he was the joke candidate in a field of a dozen or more, in which his fuckery, while extreme, just made him one asshole in a whole group of varying degrees of assholes; it's easier to swallow "Trump just said Mexicans are rapists," when the surrounding context also includes "Ben Carson suggested the pyramids were made to store grain," and "Mike Huckabee is treating a bigot who wants to get paid to not do her job like she's a hero," but that context quickly vanished. Now it's just one awful, awful man screeching about how judges who rule against him are haters and turning the worst mass shooting in history into something about him being right about muslims.

This will not do his approval ratings any good, and since by all accounts even his own campaign staff are so ineffective at campaigning and incapable of reining the man in, it's all really just down to what the Cheeto-in-Chief burbles into a microphone next. His is the only voice left, and opposite him will be Clinton, a woman that, regardless of what else you think of her, is at least mentally capable of restraining herself from saying horrible racist, sexist crap, and of proposing an actual political platform to run on.

The gravity of a general election is not conducive to the circus antics that have gotten Trump where he is, and he has months of time to speak all on his own, drawing an ever finer, deeper contrast between his own self-important bloviating and the things a real politician might say. The illusion that he might make an even palatable president is already beginning to drop everywhere, and his ego will allow him to do nothing but hasten that.

(June 19, 2016 at 5:16 pm)Esquilax Wrote: Here's the thing about Trump: it's apparently next to impossible to get him to think before he speaks.

He does think before he speaks. He's using every talking point from right winger 1.01 Don't underestimate him. He's certainly not the sharpest tool in the shed, but he's well aware of how to sell hatred and resentment. That always worked in times of crisis. I'm certainly not comparing him to Hitler, even more so since Hitler only used what was already established, but people don't ask the intellectual questions. If someone presents the easy solutions, they don't scratch the surface. They kind of hope for a Messiah taking care of their problems.

Trump, on a global basis, is only one of many using the same tactics. They all got no plans beside inciting resentments, but they all aren't asked for their plans either. Don't forget what happened in Hungary, Poland, and quite recently on the Philippines. Underestimating Trump may be the worst mistake of all.