(July 4, 2016 at 3:23 pm)abaris Wrote: You know, you only have to take it from the horse's mouth. The Himmer speech at Posen, which I posted repeatedly. Subtitled, for the idiots feeling like being nazi and still don't understand german.

Alternatively, one could take the wittness testimonies of thousands of surivivors, or, if this isn't good enough, the ones of Rudolf Höss, Oswald Pohl or Franz Stangl. Though I doubt that a recreational nazi would even know who these persons were.

Of course, I know about them. I've heard Himmler's Posen speech. I've actually got a copy of Höss' autobiography where he explains, in cold, methodical detail, how he killed the Jews during his time as commandant of Auschwitz. But, of course, let's face it, Wyrd doesn't give a shit about testimonies that could debunk his theory, even if they come from the perpetrators. He could write those off as being either propaganda written in service of the conspiracy or false confessions written under duress. But the sheer mathematical impossibility of the Allied conspiracy he describes holding up so perfectly after 70 years will be very difficult to write off.

I just got a message from the author.

Here's his response:

Dr. Grimes Wrote:Firstly, taking a supremely conservative figure of 3.14 million survivors, the simple version of the model would predict that even will a very dedicated bunch of secret keepers, the conspiracy would hit a 95% chance of collapse less than 3 years into it, and essentially would fail with certainty in less than ten years. Bear in mind this is a rough picture; I could refine the mesh a little more and resolve it on a month by month basis but the over-all picture is clear, and attached! Now, I have a slightly different version of the model which considers the effect of conspirators dying off and if I get a chance I'll throw it in, but over-all this won't change the net result! Remember too this model assumes all agents are excellent secret keepers to an unrealistic degree..and even then, the whole thing would fail!

And here's the chart he gave:


As you can see, there would be a 63% chance of the conspiracy failing within the first year, 86% by 1947, and 95% by 1948. Within 5 years, the odds of it failing would be at 99%. If this model is correct, by the time Elie Wiesel published Night, it would have been dismissed as fiction by EVERYONE.

And, bear in mind, this is assuming only the laughably low number of 3.14 million survivors as conspirators, which doesn't even include the Allied forces who would presumably be driving this plan, the (relatively few, of course) Germans who would admit to actually taking part of it, or the millions who would presumably have been forced to fake their own deaths to keep it going. Taking those into account, things would have been even worse for the conspiracy's credibility.

Maths, bitches.

(July 5, 2016 at 7:03 pm)Iroscato Wrote: Maths, bitches.

And bear in mind, this model actually gives the deniers significant benefit of the doubt with regards to how many conspirators would be required and how well they can all keep a secret. And failure is still inevitable by 1953 at the latest.

Simply put, not only is Holocaust denial in insult to the millions dead or even an insult to the ability of the Nazis to pull off their biggest goal, it's also an insult to our intelligence to believe the whole thing wouldn't have gone bust decades ago.

But...but...Zionism!

(July 6, 2016 at 10:45 am)Iroscato Wrote: But...but...Zionism!

And now that that point's up, what about the non-negligible number of Haredi Jews affected by the Holocaust, who have a long-standing opposition to the modern state of Israel, or the many non-Jewish victims, many of whom were likely as Anti-Semitic as the Nazis? Why would they play ball? And, bear in mind, every torturer to force them to play ball is another link in the chain and raises the possibility of imminent failure.