Do you guys think 2020 is the year it all goes to shit?

A global recession is statistically overdue anyway. Do you think the coronavirus is the black swan which will kickstart it?
Here is Au, we've had a tough start with our fires killing our tourism, in an already weak economy, chain store brands closing almost on a daily basis.

How's it looking in your neck of the woods?

PS, the coronavirus jokes are already starting! too soon?
eg: it won't last long because it's made in China! and everybody there is Kung Flu fighting!

Be safe! Wear protection!

I'm not taking any risks!

(February 25, 2020 at 8:39 pm)ignoramus Wrote: Do you guys think 2020 is the year it all goes to shit?

A global recession is statistically overdue anyway. Do you think the coronavirus is the black swan which will kickstart it?
Here is Au, we've had a tough start with our fires killing our tourism, in an already weak economy, chain store brands closing almost on a daily basis.

How's it looking in your neck of the woods?

PS, the coronavirus jokes are already starting! too soon?
eg: it won't last long because it's made in China! and everybody there is Kung Flu fighting!

Be safe! Wear protection!

I'm not taking any risks!

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Well. Let's see. The coronavirus affects about 1/10th or less of the people affected with the flu. I personally think that the threat is hyped, and also consider it to be a ploy by shitheads in the stock market to make money, in the same way that spot market fuel prices were manipulated in years past, here in the US.

I have a bit of money in the stock market, and a bit invested in things that are impervious to the stock market. Not quantifying those bits, but I'm not too concerned about a big loss, since I have a quite conservative portfolio, and made it more so earlier this month.

My investor guy told me to expect a market correction during Trumps presidency. I guess that this might be the start of it.

He's already made preemptive changes but it's still gonna hurt. Hopefully it won't be a 2008.

That's the problem with corrections. They're indistinguishable from a landslide.
When Ireland collapsed and their property prices were heading downhill, on the way down, they had 3 major corrections where they started to upswing slightly.
Everyone (at the time) thought this might be the end of the downswing, and rightly so, but it ultimately was short lived and they finally hit rock bottom with an 80% decline in property prices. 12 years later, a large portion of home owners are still in negative equity even today.

It just worries me how bad it's going to get if the world does go into a full blown recession without any feds to help. Not like they can cut 4-6% in interest rates (which is/was needed to kickstart a failing economy). Unless of course we want to go into deep negative. Something which has never happened before.

It scare me to find out yesterday that billions of people's super (in the US) are going into 30 year zero bonds. Fuck me!

Remember when the president calmed a nervous nation and tasked the finest minds in the land with conquering the coronavirus threat? Me neither, but I do remember when the stupid fuck defunded the CDC and fired entire pandemic response team and never bothered to replace them.

And CDC now claims that Coronavirus Could Infect 40-70% of Global Population in 2020.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/0...oronavirus

(February 25, 2020 at 11:22 pm)ignoramus Wrote: That's the problem with corrections. They're indistinguishable from a landslide.
When Ireland collapsed and their property prices were heading downhill, on the way down, they had 3 major corrections where they started to upswing slightly.
Everyone (at the time) thought this might be the end of the downswing, and rightly so, but it ultimately was short lived and they finally hit rock bottom with an 80% decline in property prices. 12 years later, a large portion of home owners are still in negative equity even today.

It just worries me how bad it's going to get if the world does go into a full blown recession without any feds to help. Not like they can cut 4-6% in interest rates (which is/was needed to kickstart a failing economy). Unless of course we want to go into deep negative. Something which has never happened before.

It scare me to find out yesterday that billions of people's super (in the US) are going into 30 year zero bonds. Fuck me!

Call me an SOB, but I'm watching the market, and if housing prices drop far enough, I'll be buying a few houses to rent out until the market comes back up, and then I'll be selling them...if I live long enough. I suspect that the time frame is right for my spawn to live comfortably. 

Never fell bad if you have to do that. It's nothing personal. If you don't buy it, someone else will.
My safe prediction is if the economy tanks (and there's a 100 different black swans out there right now) before your next elections, it's almost certain imho that Sanders or possibly AOC will probably get elected. Fair call? And then that's the beginning of the end of what's left of the American empire....

Hindsight is this year.

(February 25, 2020 at 11:22 pm)ignoramus Wrote: That's the problem with corrections. They're indistinguishable from a landslide.
When Ireland collapsed and their property prices were heading downhill, on the way down, they had 3 major corrections where they started to upswing slightly.
Everyone (at the time) thought this might be the end of the downswing, and rightly so, but it ultimately was short lived and they finally hit rock bottom with an 80% decline in property prices. 12 years later, a large portion of home owners are still in negative equity even today.

It just worries me how bad it's going to get if the world does go into a full blown recession without any feds to help. Not like they can cut 4-6% in interest rates (which is/was needed to kickstart a failing economy). Unless of course we want to go into deep negative. Something which has never happened before.

It scare me to find out yesterday that billions of people's super (in the US) are going into 30 year zero bonds. Fuck me!

Actually with the new housing bubble, only those who took oit >100% mortgages are still in negative equity. The problem now is that people are struggling paying off mortgages with wages that are lower even in nominal terms than back before the crash (for example I will only hit the same wages in nominal terms as somebody in my grade and increment level had in 2008 by September, never mind real term equivalence). And with a rental market that is a sellers market there is often no option but to struggle on with paying the mortgage, apart from going homeless.

If another 2008 happens the world economy keels over, because the response to 2008 was not to ficx the problems, but paper over the cracks.

The panic over coronovirus will be over in a number of months. There will be several thousand more fatalities, most likely, but it won't have a global impact that peolle are causing a panic about.

Remember around 60,000 people in the US alone die from the 'flu every year.

I honestly don't think there's a reason to panic over this outbreak.