(October 14, 2020 at 10:49 am)Rev. Rye Wrote:

Quote:The White House has embraced a declaration by a group of scientists arguing that authorities should allow the coronavirus to spread among young healthy people while protecting the elderly and the vulnerable — an approach that would rely on arriving at “herd immunity” through infections rather than a vaccine.
Many experts say “herd immunity” — the point at which a disease stops spreading because nearly everyone in a population has contracted it — is still very far-off. Leading experts have concluded, using different scientific methods, that about  to the coronavirus.
On a call convened Monday by the White House, two senior administration officials, both speaking anonymously because they were not authorized to give their names, cited an October 4 petition titled , which argues against lockdowns and calls for a reopening of businesses and schools.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/13/...irus-covid

It’s worth noting that a good-sized portion of this analysis in the Great Barrington Declaration hinges on the very questionable assumptions made by two scientists (Sunetra Gupta and Gabriela Gomes) that herd immunity could happen with COVID when 10-20% of the population gets it. Unfortunately, this is not really backed Up by the science.

1st or all, the notion that herd immunity occurs when everyone in the herd became immune from having contracted the disease is false.     If that wren the case, and given the typical 2% death rate we’ve seen with COVID-19, attainment of herd immunity will cost 7 million American lives. 

Herd immunity actually occurs when a disease is contagious, but not very contagious.   Put it another way, the diesease’s actual degree of contagiousness Is only somewhat higher than the minimum degree of contagiousness required for it to propagate through a population.     So in order for the disease to propagate through the population, it depends on most chains of transmission it can manage not being broken.     

With such a marginal degree of contagiousness. severing a just a small percentage of the potential chains of propagation gums up the works Enough to stop the disease from propagating.   Herd immunity occurs when a small percentage of people acquire immunity and becomes the glue that gums up the transmission chain. 

As we;be seen, COVID is anything but “not very contagious”.    So herd immunity at 20% infection rate seems improbable.

(October 15, 2020 at 2:49 am)Anomalocaris Wrote:

(October 14, 2020 at 10:49 am)Rev. Rye Wrote: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/13/...irus-covid

It’s worth noting that a good-sized portion of this analysis in the Great Barrington Declaration hinges on the very questionable assumptions made by two scientists (Sunetra Gupta and Gabriela Gomes) that herd immunity could happen with COVID when 10-20% of the population gets it. Unfortunately, this is not really backed Up by the science.

1st or all, the notion that herd immunity occurs when everyone in the herd became immune from having contracted the disease is false.     If that wren the case, and given the typical 2% death rate we’ve seen with COVID-19, attainment of herd immunity will cost 7 million American lives. 

Herd immunity actually occurs when a disease is contagious, but not very contagious.   Put it another way, the diesease’s actual degree of contagiousness Is only somewhat higher than the minimum degree of contagiousness required for it to propagate through a population.     So in order for the disease to propagate through the population, it depends on most chains of transmission it can manage not being broken.     

With such a marginal degree of contagiousness. severing a just a small percentage of the potential chains of propagation gums up the works Enough to stop the disease from propagating.   Herd immunity occurs when a small percentage of people acquire immunity and becomes the glue that gums up the transmission chain. 

As we;be seen, COVID is anything but “not very contagious”.    So herd immunity at 20% infection rate seems improbable.

COVID’s looking more and more like it's going to become endemic, something we’re all going to have to live with for the foreseeable future. Herd immunity is, as you say, highly unlikely, and the virus seems to be as mutable as some influenza strains.

Even with a reliable vaccine, the future is likely to include an annual COVID season, an annual COVID jab, and an annual death toll.

Damn those Chinese!!

Boru

This was inevitable. Not just because of the Chinese wet markets in Wuhan or whatever, but because of our encroachment on natural habitats of wildlife and being exposed to so many unknowns at the same time in that exposed environment. Bill Gates, think of him what you will, he had a TED presentation 5 years ago about this, and he was merely echoing stuff said decades prior. We didn't do shit then. TBH, after the dust has settled somewhat, I think we still won't do shit in the future to prepare and combat this, I have no reason to think stuff will change in this regard.