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Newcomb's Paradox
#1
Newcomb's Paradox
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb%27s_paradox

A lot of you would know about this already. The interesting thing about this puzzle is that even though it seems like there is a very clear correct answer here, there are a lot of people who insist that's not correct ... and I'm taking philosophers, mathematicians, game theorists, and not just laypeople. So I guess that's really where the "paradox" lies.

Anyway, here's the problem to consider:

You have two boxes in front of you. Behind these two boxes is the Predictor, some super-advanced being who is (at the very least) really, really good at predicting beforehand what you would do.

Box A is transparent and contains $1000.
Box B is opaque and either contains $0 or $1000000

You have two options here:

Either choose both Box A and Box B, or
Choose Box B only

The Predictor has already predicted what option you would go for:
If they predicted you would choose both boxes, then Box B will contain $0.
If they predicted you would choose Box B only, then Box B will contain $1000000

Which option do you go for?

I suspect most of us here would choose Box B only, but it would be interesting to hear the different perspectives on this problem.
#2
RE: Newcomb's Paradox
If you choose Box A, there is an absolute certainty that you net $1000 dollars.

If you chose box B, you will net either $0 or $1 000 000.

If you choose both, your net is either $0, $1 000 000 or $1 001 000.

In two out of three scenarios, you risk ending up with nothing.

For gamblers, the likely option is to choose both. For those looking for a sure thing, choose A.

Boru
‘But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods or no gods. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg.’ - Thomas Jefferson
#3
RE: Newcomb's Paradox
Can I just rob the predictor? Obviously he/it didn't need the money to begin with.
I don't have an anger problem, I have an idiot problem.
#4
RE: Newcomb's Paradox
whatever you pick you will lose nothing
The meek shall inherit the Earth, the rest of us will fly to the stars.

Never underestimate the power of very stupid people in large groups

Arguing with an engineer is like wrestling with a pig in mud ..... after a while you realise that the pig likes it!

#5
RE: Newcomb's Paradox
I misread the OP - choosing Box A only is not an option. In that case, choosing both boxes is a marginally better option, as you’re guaranteed at least $1000. Choosing Box B only gives you a 50% chance of walking away with bupkis.

Boru
‘But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods or no gods. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg.’ - Thomas Jefferson
#6
RE: Newcomb's Paradox
I'm not choosing a box.
"Never trust a fox. Looks like a dog, behaves like a cat."
~ Erin Hunter
#7
RE: Newcomb's Paradox
(January 28, 2023 at 12:40 pm)GrandizerII Wrote: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb%27s_paradox

A lot of you would know about this already. The interesting thing about this puzzle is that even though it seems like there is a very clear correct answer here, there are a lot of people who insist that's not correct ... and I'm taking philosophers, mathematicians, game theorists, and not just laypeople. So I guess that's really where the "paradox" lies.

Anyway, here's the problem to consider:

You have two boxes in front of you. Behind these two boxes is the Predictor, some super-advanced being who is (at the very least)
at predicting beforehand what you would do.

Box A is transparent and contains $1000.
Box B is opaque and either contains $0 or $1000000

You have two options here:

Either choose both Box A and Box B, or
Choose Box B only

The Predictor has already predicted what option you would go for:
If they predicted you would choose both boxes, then Box B will contain $0.
If they predicted you would choose Box B only, then Box B will contain $1000000

Which option do you go for?

I suspect most of us here would choose Box B only, but it would be interesting to hear the different perspectives on this problem.


How good?
#8
RE: Newcomb's Paradox
(January 28, 2023 at 12:40 pm)GrandizerII Wrote: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb%27s_paradox

A lot of you would know about this already. The interesting thing about this puzzle is that even though it seems like there is a very clear correct answer here, there are a lot of people who insist that's not correct ... and I'm taking philosophers, mathematicians, game theorists, and not just laypeople. So I guess that's really where the "paradox" lies.

Anyway, here's the problem to consider:

You have two boxes in front of you. Behind these two boxes is the Predictor, some super-advanced being who is (at the very least) really really good at predicting beforehand what you would do.

Box A is transparent and contains $1000.
Box B is opaque and either contains $0 or $1000000

You have two options here:

Either choose both Box A and Box B, or
Choose Box B only

The Predictor has already predicted what option you would go for:
If they predicted you would choose both boxes, then Box B will contain $0.
If they predicted you would choose Box B only, then Box B will contain $1000000

Which option do you go for?

I suspect most of us here would choose Box B only, but it would be interesting to hear the different perspectives on this problem.


I can defeat any amount of goodness in his ability to predict my decision by randomizing my decision,   So if he is really good at predicting my decisions, he would predict I would decide to make a random decision that he can not predict except by random chance.
#9
RE: Newcomb's Paradox
(January 28, 2023 at 8:27 pm)Anomalocaris Wrote:
(January 28, 2023 at 12:40 pm)GrandizerII Wrote: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb%27s_paradox

A lot of you would know about this already. The interesting thing about this puzzle is that even though it seems like there is a very clear correct answer here, there are a lot of people who insist that's not correct ... and I'm taking philosophers, mathematicians, game theorists, and not just laypeople. So I guess that's really where the "paradox" lies.

Anyway, here's the problem to consider:

You have two boxes in front of you. Behind these two boxes is the Predictor, some super-advanced being who is (at the very least) really really good at predicting beforehand what you would do.

Box A is transparent and contains $1000.
Box B is opaque and either contains $0 or $1000000

You have two options here:

Either choose both Box A and Box B, or
Choose Box B only

The Predictor has already predicted what option you would go for:
If they predicted you would choose both boxes, then Box B will contain $0.
If they predicted you would choose Box B only, then Box B will contain $1000000

Which option do you go for?

I suspect most of us here would choose Box B only, but it would be interesting to hear the different perspectives on this problem.


I can defeat any amount of goodness in his ability to predict my decision by randomizing my decision,   So if he is really good at predicting my decisions, he would predict I would decide to make a random decision that he can not predict except by random chance.

What are you going to use as a source of randomness and was your choice of that source random?
[Image: extraordinarywoo-sig.jpg]
#10
RE: Newcomb's Paradox
(January 28, 2023 at 8:27 pm)Anomalocaris Wrote:
(January 28, 2023 at 12:40 pm)GrandizerII Wrote: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb%27s_paradox

A lot of you would know about this already. The interesting thing about this puzzle is that even though it seems like there is a very clear correct answer here, there are a lot of people who insist that's not correct ... and I'm taking philosophers, mathematicians, game theorists, and not just laypeople. So I guess that's really where the "paradox" lies.

Anyway, here's the problem to consider:

You have two boxes in front of you. Behind these two boxes is the Predictor, some super-advanced being who is (at the very least) really really good at predicting beforehand what you would do.

Box A is transparent and contains $1000.
Box B is opaque and either contains $0 or $1000000

You have two options here:

Either choose both Box A and Box B, or
Choose Box B only

The Predictor has already predicted what option you would go for:
If they predicted you would choose both boxes, then Box B will contain $0.
If they predicted you would choose Box B only, then Box B will contain $1000000

Which option do you go for?

I suspect most of us here would choose Box B only, but it would be interesting to hear the different perspectives on this problem.


I can defeat any amount of goodness in his ability to predict my decision by randomizing my decision,   So if he is really good at predicting my decisions, he would predict I would decide to make a random decision that he can not predict except by random chance.

According to the conundrum, the Predictor knows, without possibility of error, which choice you will make. Randomness is not a factor.

When answering a paradox, the respondents are not permitted to add provisos of their own.

Boru
‘But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods or no gods. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg.’ - Thomas Jefferson



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