Do Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence?

[Minimalist]

Sometimes fun has to be sacrificed for safety.  If you put him in a cage he'll probably throw shit at passers-by.

[Amarok]

You're getting closer--I can see where you are going with this: The tax code NT is great evidence for the fact that taxes the supernatural exists

No he wasn't .And no it isn't. Now get back to the asylum and take your meds .

Now you pivot to "one story". Wouldn't it be cause for concern if all these books told us more than "one story"? I think it's more convincing that it is "one story". 

I almost passed out laughing at this . As long as one sticks to an apologist narrative .

your misconceptions and fringe theories that I marked above is just that--misconceptions and fringe theories with no real evidence.

Nope there well evidenced idea's that defy the faulty consensous of a discipline that has gone to the dogs. You can insult them all you like but that does not make it go away.

[Angrboda]

In this thread, what we see is nothing less than a three pronged attack upon traditional reasoning, posed in order to make the Christian hypothesis more plausible.  First is an attack upon the oft repeated maxim that implausible claims require greater evidence to be believed than do more probable events.  This is nothing more than an attempt to lower the bar for their pet theory.  The second is an attempt to confuse the issue of the plausibility of miracles with a quick two step and dismissal.  The third is in the attempt to put forward belief in the supernatural as a "properly basic belief."  Most won't recognize the origins of that phrase, but it is a shibboleth for those who believe in a Christian backed fringe theory in epistemology known as reformed epistemology.  It is a cloaked appeal to a theory which undermines traditional thinking about justification.  It's yet another attempt to lower or erase the bar so as to make Christian beliefs more plausible.

The first of these prongs is an attempt to make events having a low probability only require the same degree of justification as beliefs about events that are relatively probable.  And what is the basis of this attack?  Nothing more than a semantic argument about what the word extraordinary means in the phrase "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."  It's nothing more than an attempt to undermine this common sense intuition with word play.  We don't accept implausible claims on the basis of run-of-the-mill evidence.  If we did, there is no end to the number of things we would believe based upon such evidence.  In that case, the implausible would become common in our beliefs, which would represent the improbable as being rather quite probable.  There is a mismatch there.  Believing the improbable to be probable.  As a practical matter, unless we wish our thinking to be infected with such a ludicrous situation, we demand more from improbable claims than that somebody wrote about them in ancient times.  That's not only poor evidence, it's piss poor.

But more than an attack upon pragmatic considerations, it is a direct attack upon Bayesian reasoning about the probabilities.  In Bayesian inference, the prior probability of an event occurring has a predictable effect on the ultimate probability that the event occurred given the evidence we have.  An example from Wikipedia is illustrative of this fact.



In particular, note how a low base rate results in a low posterior probability, in spite of our intuitions about the drug test's accuracy.  In this case the base rate is analogous to the prior probability in the case of miracles.  The theist in this case wants to eliminate this effect any way they can because it argues directly against the probability of miracles being higher on the basis of mundane evidence.  Note that two attacks are made upon the acknowledgement of this fact, first the semantic bullshit about the word extraordinary, and then an attempt to justify the plausibility of miracles by more wordy nonsense about the acceptability of the supernatural.  Rather than face the fact that their evidence simply doesn't measure up, they attack traditional reasoning.

The second attack is to confuse and obfuscate the natural intuition that miracles are improbable events.  This includes a couple of jabs at the Bayesian reasoning, which I'm not going to go into.  And of course, accompanied by more semantic arguments about miracles, including the last resort of referring to reformed epistemology by declaring belief in the supernatural to be a "properly basic belief."  This is, like the attack on Bayesian inference, made plausible only by the fact that most people are unfamiliar with it and thus don't understand what is being claimed.  Reformed epistemology is nothing but a fringe epistemological theory, advocated by Christian philosophers primarily because it is more 'friendly' to the Christian's pet beliefs.

In all three cases we see the typical apologist's tactic, if they can't win the game on the merits of their evidence, they attempt to change the rules.  It's nothing but an illegitimate attempt to undermine traditional reasoning so they can refashion it to make it more amenable to their pet beliefs.  It's nothing but bullshit.

Prong 1 - "Implausible claims require greater evidence to be believed than do more probable events".

Substituting "implausible" for the typical "extraordinary" is poisoning the well and question begging.

It's called defining a term, Steve. You asked what the operant definition of extraordinary was, and when I supply an answer, you cry foul. Heads you win, tails I lose, eh? This is nothing but disingenious game playing. So you can take your baseless claims of fallacy this and fallacy that and shove them where the sun don't shine. You don't like my definition of extraordinary? Then provide some criticism of it, instead of bleating like a wounded sheep.

No one has told me yet why "Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence" (instead preferring a long discussion on the evidence). It sounds intuitive, but in fact is demonstrably false.

Seeing that you haven't provided any such demonstration, this is a bit premature. Never argue a point that you can claim by bare assertion, huh?

Let's go with an example from Luke 5:17-39:

17 On one of the days while Jesus was teaching, some proud religious law-keepers and teachers of the Law were sitting by Him. They had come from every town in the countries of Galilee and Judea and from Jerusalem. The power of the Lord was there to heal them. 18 Some men took a man who was not able to move his body to Jesus. He was carried on a bed. They looked for a way to take the man into the house where Jesus was. 19 But they could not find a way to take him in because of so many people. They made a hole in the roof over where Jesus stood. Then they let the bed with the sick man on it down before Jesus. 20 When Jesus saw their faith, He said to the man, “Friend, your sins are forgiven.”

21 The teachers of the Law and the proud religious law-keepers thought to themselves, “Who is this Man Who speaks as if He is God? Who can forgive sins but God only?” 22 Jesus knew what they were thinking. He said to them, “Why do you think this way in your hearts? 23 Which is easier to say, ‘Your sins are forgiven,’ or, ‘Get up and walk’?

24 “So that you may know the Son of Man has the right and the power on earth to forgive sins,” He said to the man who could not move his body, “I say to you, get up. Take your bed and go to your home.” 25 At once the sick man got up in front of them. He took his bed and went to his home thanking God. 26 All those who were there were surprised and gave thanks to God, saying, “We have seen very special things today.”

The healing of the paralyzed man was extraordinary. However there was only one piece of evidence:the man walked away.

Helping yourself to some freebie facts I see. The question puts the whole story in doubt. You don't get to assume facts drawn from a story when the whole story's trustworthiness is contested. That's stealing from a bank that is empty.

 Is this what you mean by "greater evidence" (extraordinary)? If so, how so? I contend that any event only needs ordinary evidence (not greater in quantity or quality) because a simple probability equation can be made: is the probability of the event having a supernatural cause more than offset by the probability of seeing the effect had the event NOT had a supernatural cause. In other words, how probable was the man walking away had a miracle not occured? I contend that it is way lower. So, therefore the evidence of the man walking away is sufficient to reasonably believe in the supernatural cause--for someone present.

Except that you don't have any such evidence because the truth of the whole story is what's at issue. You don't get to just assume facts not in evidence because your bias leads you there. Is the story as a whole well evidenced? Well, what's your evidence for the story. Solely that someone long ago wrote down the story. That's hardly evidence to speak of. People wrote all sorts of such stories in that day and age, and you don't believe those tales anymore than I believe yours. And for what it matters, you can dispense with all the miracles of healing and walking on water and such rot. There are plenty of other stories of people performing similar feats which you don't believe, so arguing the truth of those miracles simply degrades into a grand exercise in special pleading. No, as is remarked, the truth of Christianity stands or falls on the truth of the resurrection miracle. And that certainly qualifies as an implausible or extraordinary event. And what's your evidence for that? That someone in ancient times wrote a story about it. The stories told about it aren't even consistent. That's such poor evidence that it's laughable.

Let's reason a step further. Say someone was there and wrote about it. Well, we have the same circumstances, evidence and assessment, so really there is no justification to reexamine the event itself. Instead we turn to the eyewitness's dependablity on relating the event. Is there anything that can be extraordinary about a single witness's dependability? I don't think so. We can increase the confidence we have in this eyewitness by seeing if there are other eyewitness accounts.

You have a problem Steve, it's called lack of evidence. Arguing that a bunch of credulous stories from a time when such stories were accepted and passed around uncritically constitutes good evidence for a highly improbable event is just being foolish (or so incredibly biased that you can't see reason).

We can further increase the confidence by the existence of other similar (not the same) supernatural events--a pattern--related by several eyewitnesses.  The number of these accounts needed to meet some standard of 'dependable' will be very different between individuals and groups depending on the bias or preconceived beliefs about the supernatural. For instance, most of the world does not have a big problem believing in the supernatural, so their dependability threshold will be different than an atheist. If the threshold is subjective, then 'extraordinary' loses any meaning at all. 

Again, you're dipping from a well that is empty. Using one unsupported story to back up another unsupported story is simply illegitimate. You're right about one thing though. The whole argument is about persuasion. If you can't convince a neutral person on the strength of your so-called evidence, all you've got is a bunch of empty words. And here we see you mounting an ad populum argument for the plausibility of the supernatural. The problem is that the supernatural comes in distinct varieties. The Hindu supernaturalist won't accept the Christian supernatural, and the Jewish supernaturalist won't accept the Buddhist's supernatural and so on. You're trying to amalgamate a class which can't be amalgamated. The only claims to neutrality which can be agreed to by mostly all parties are the findings of science. And it's that standard of evidence which you're comparing the reliability of your campfire tales to in this argument. So, no, the standard isn't subjective, just not well delineated.

It seems you might be going the route that any eyewitness testimony written in the first century is insufficient. If so, then in effect you are denying that any evidence is possible--because really, what other evidence could there be? Tell my why that isn't question begging. 

There are reasons which justify doubting stories of miracles from this time, or indeed from any time. It isn't question begging if you don't just assume your conclusion but provide rational justification for your stance. But once again we find you bleating like a sheep instead of providing actual argument. No I don't find second-hand stories of the miraculous to be particularly credible. What is considered evidence for the historical sciences is not on a par with that from the physical sciences, and while you may whine about this inequity, that is simply a fact. That you have inferior evidence for your chosen beliefs is not my problem. Not to mention it bespeaks of a double standard with you that you accept Christian miracle stories, but not the miracle stories of other religion which are just as well evidenced by second hand stories as your Christian tales.

I did not attack Bayesian probability. You can see my post from page 2 with the equation here. Tell me why that is not way more appropriate to the discussion than your example.

It's appropriate to the discussion, it's just falsely described. You don't have facts that are more probable if the claim is true than if it is false. You have stories, and the evidence from the history of mankind is that people make up such stories. So, no, the weight of the improbability of evidence (which you don't have) that is based on second hand stories does not outweigh the improbability of the event. By the way, I consider falsely describing the application of Bayesian inference to be perilously close to an attack on it. At the very least it is a terrible misrepresentation. And yes you have mounted an attack upon the basic Bayesian reasoning behind the dismissal of your miracle stories with an assertion that the question of whether a specific miracle occurred is improbable is subjective. Mister Agenda raised the objection that ECREE is well accounted for by Bayesian inference early on in the discussion, and you've spent your time since then tap dancing around it, mouthing bare assertions that its falseness has been "demonstrated", and crying foul whenever anyone attempts to answer your questions. Yes, standards of evidence vary, but in no standard are arbitrary miracles a probable event. That's just intentionally trading on the vagueness of standards of evidence to effectively claim they don't exist. And that's an example of the fallacy of the beard. You want to conflate 'poorly defined' with 'not defined at all'. If you have a problem with science being the gold standard for what is and is not probable, why don't you articulate your objection, instead of bleating "fallacy! fallacy!" at every turn.

Oh, and I see from your post on page 2 that you've tried to slip another bare assertion by us by trying to claim that the supernatural exists is part of our background knowledge. You have a nonsensical concept of knowledge if you think that belief in the supernatural qualifies as 'knowledge'. Bad Steve, Baaaad.

[Amarok]

Prong 1 - "Implausible claims require greater evidence to be believed than do more probable events".

Substituting "implausible" for the typical "extraordinary" is poisoning the well and question begging.

It's called defining a term, Steve.  You asked what the operant definition of extraordinary was, and when I supply an answer, you cry foul.  Heads you win, tails I lose, eh?  This is nothing but disingenious game playing.   So you can take your baseless claims of fallcy this and fallacy that and shove them where the sun don't shine.  You don't like my definition of extraordinary?  Then provide some  criticism of it, instead of bleating like a wounded sheep.

No one has told me yet why "Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence" (instead preferring a long discussion on the evidence). It sounds intuitive, but in fact is demonstrably false.

Seeing that you haven't provided any such demonstration, this is a bit premature.  Never argue a point that you can claim by bare assertion, huh?

Let's go with an example from Luke 5:17-39:

17 On one of the days while Jesus was teaching, some proud religious law-keepers and teachers of the Law were sitting by Him. They had come from every town in the countries of Galilee and Judea and from Jerusalem. The power of the Lord was there to heal them. 18 Some men took a man who was not able to move his body to Jesus. He was carried on a bed. They looked for a way to take the man into the house where Jesus was. 19 But they could not find a way to take him in because of so many people. They made a hole in the roof over where Jesus stood. Then they let the bed with the sick man on it down before Jesus. 20 When Jesus saw their faith, He said to the man, “Friend, your sins are forgiven.”

21 The teachers of the Law and the proud religious law-keepers thought to themselves, “Who is this Man Who speaks as if He is God? Who can forgive sins but God only?” 22 Jesus knew what they were thinking. He said to them, “Why do you think this way in your hearts? 23 Which is easier to say, ‘Your sins are forgiven,’ or, ‘Get up and walk’?

24 “So that you may know the Son of Man has the right and the power on earth to forgive sins,” He said to the man who could not move his body, “I say to you, get up. Take your bed and go to your home.” 25 At once the sick man got up in front of them. He took his bed and went to his home thanking God. 26 All those who were there were surprised and gave thanks to God, saying, “We have seen very special things today.”

The healing of the paralyzed man was extraordinary. However there was only one piece of evidence:the man walked away.

Helping yourself to some freebie facts I see.  The question puts the whole story in doubt.  You don't get to assume facts drawn from a story when the whole story's trustworthiness is contested.  That's stealing from a bank that is empty.

 Is this what you mean by "greater evidence" (extraordinary)? If so, how so? I contend that any event only needs ordinary evidence (not greater in quantity or quality) because a simple probability equation can be made: is the probability of the event having a supernatural cause more than offset by the probability of seeing the effect had the event NOT had a supernatural cause. In other words, how probable was the man walking away had a miracle not occured? I contend that it is way lower. So, therefore the evidence of the man walking away is sufficient to reasonably believe in the supernatural cause--for someone present.

Except that you don't have any such evidence because the truth of the whole story is what's at issue.  You don't get to just assume facts not in evidence because your bias leads you there.  Is the story as a whole well evidenced?  Well, what's your evidence for the story.  Solely that someone long ago wrote down the story.  That's hardly evidence to speak of.  People wrote all sorts of such stories in that day and age, and you don't believe those tales anymore than I believe yours. And for what it matters, you can dispense with all the miracles of healing and walking on water and such rot.  There are plenty of other stories of people performing similar feats which you don't believe, so arguing the truth of those miracles simply degrades into a grand exercise in special pleading.  No, as is remarked, the truth of Christianity stands or falls on the truth of the resurrection miracle.  And that certainly qualifies as an implausible or extraordinary event.  And what's your evidence for that?  That someone in ancient times wrote a story about it.  The stories told about it aren't even consistent.  That's such poor evidence that it's laughable.

Let's reason a step further. Say someone was there and wrote about it. Well, we have the same circumstances, evidence and assessment, so really there is no justification to reexamine the event itself. Instead we turn to the eyewitness's dependablity on relating the event. Is there anything that can be extraordinary about a single witness's dependability? I don't think so. We can increase the confidence we have in this eyewitness by seeing if there are other eyewitness accounts.

You have a problem Steve, it's called lack of evidence.  Arguing that a bunch of credulous stories from a time when such stories were accepted and passed around uncritically constitutes good evidence for a highly improbable event is just being foolish (or so incredibly biased that you can't see reason).

We can further increase the confidence by the existence of other similar (not the same) supernatural events--a pattern--related by several eyewitnesses.  The number of these accounts needed to meet some standard of 'dependable' will be very different between individuals and groups depending on the bias or preconceived beliefs about the supernatural. For instance, most of the world does not have a big problem believing in the supernatural, so their dependability threshold will be different than an atheist. If the threshold is subjective, then 'extraordinary' loses any meaning at all. 

Again, you're dipping from a well that is empty.  Using one unsupported story to back up another unsupported story is simply illegitimate.  You're right about one thing though.  The whole argument is about persuasion.  If you can't convince a neutral person on the strength of your so-called evidence, all you've got is a bunch of empty words.  And here we see you mounting an ad populum argument for the plausibility of the supernatural.  The problem is that the supernatural comes in distinct varieties.  The Hindu supernaturalist won't accept the Christian supernatural, and the Jewish supernaturalist won't accept the Buddhist's supernatural and so on.  You're trying to amalgamate a class which can't be amalgamated.  The only claims to neutrality which can be agreed to by mostly all parties are the findings of science.  And it's that standard of evidence which you're comparing the reliability of your campfire tales to in this argument.  So, no, the standard isn't subjective, just not well delineated.

It seems you might be going the route that any eyewitness testimony written in the first century is insufficient. If so, then in effect you are denying that any evidence is possible--because really, what other evidence could there be? Tell my why that isn't question begging. 

There are reasons which justify doubting stories of miracles from this time, or indeed from any time.  It isn't question begging if you don't just assume your conclusion but provide rational justification for your stance.  But once again we find you bleating like a sheep instead of providing actual argument.  No I don't find second-hand stories of the miraculous to be particularly credible.  What is considered evidence for the historical sciences is not on a par with that from the physical sciences, and while you may whine about this inequity, that is simply a fact.  That you have inferior evidence for your chosen beliefs is not my problem.  Not to mention it bespeaks of a double standard with you that you accept Christian miracle stories, but not the miracle stories of other religion which are just as well evidenced by second hand stories as your Christian tales.

I did not attack Bayesian probability. You can see my post from page 2 with the equation here. Tell me why that is not way more appropriate to the discussion than your example.

It's appropriate to the discussion, it's just falsely described.  You don't have facts that are more probable if the claim is true than if it is false.  You have stories, and the evidence from the history of mankind is that people make up such stories.  So, no, the weight of the improbability of evidence (which you don't have) that is based on second hand stories does not outweigh the improbability of the event.  By the way, I consider falsely describing the application of Bayesian inference to be perilously close to an attack on it.  At the very least it is a terrible misrepresentation.  And yes you have mounted an attack upon the basic Bayesian reasoning behind the dismissal of your miracle stories with an assertion that the question of whether a specific miracle occurred is subjective.  Mister Agenda raised the objection that ECREE is well accounted for by Bayesian inference early on in the discussion, and you've spent your time since then tap dancing around it, mouthing bare assertions that its falseness has been "demonstrated", and crying foul whenever anyone attempts to answer your questions. Yes, standards of evidence vary, but in no standard are arbitrary miracles a probable event.  That's just intentionally trading on the vagueness of standards of evidence to effectively claim they don't exist.  And that's an example of the fallacy of the beard.  You want to conflate 'poorly defined' with 'not defined at all'.  If you have a problem with science being the gold standard for what is and is not probable, why don't you articulate your objection, instead of bleating "fallacy! fallacy!" at every turn.

Well of course he will do all the above he has no choice. The curtain cannot be pulled back or Oz will no longer be great and powerful. The worst bit is he thinks extraordinary is a popularity contest.

[SteveII]

Steve, I'm curious.  What's your take on the miracle of the sun in Fatima? [1] And the Mandela effect?  Both phenomena involve large numbers of people claiming to witness/experience a singular, supernatural event or occurrence.  (We have many different examples of the Mandela Effect of course, but the supernatural cause people attribute to it is more or less the same)

Why are you so hung up on the Bible as evidence anyway?  You seem to be saying you're okay with people categorizing it as lousy and unconvincing, just so long as we consider it evidence. [3]  What's the practical difference between lousy evidence and no evidence at all? [4] A rational person will come to the same conclusion either way.  Or, is it because you need the Bible to be evidence in order for the Bayesian scenario presented in your OP to work out in favor of your beliefs?  Atheism isn't a claim in any case, but even if you were to use "there is no god" in your little equation, logical arguments still aren't evidence.  So, what does that leave you with?

An extraordinary claim with lousy evidence to support it.

1. I'm skeptical because there was no context to the miracle. Nowhere in the records has God caused a miracle for effect. But, we cannot know if there was some local context and some local effect that God required for some unknown purpose.
2. The Mandela Effect does not describe a complete cause-effect that one can examine. At best, it is an effect without a known cause.  
3. I wanted to point out that claims of "no evidence" is patently false. 
4. If there is evidence, it follows that one is not irrational to believe it.

[Whateverist]

The second attack is to confuse and obfuscate the natural intuition that miracles are improbable events.  This includes a couple of jabs at the Bayesian reasoning, which I'm not going to go into.  And of course, accompanied by more semantic arguments about miracles, including the last resort of referring to reformed epistemology by declaring belief in the supernatural to be a "properly basic belief."  This is, like the attack on Bayesian inference, made plausible only by the fact that most people are unfamiliar with it and thus don't understand what is being claimed.  Reformed epistemology is nothing but a fringe epistemological theory, advocated by Christian philosophers primarily because it is more 'friendly' to the Christian's pet beliefs.

No one tells it like Jormy.  


I wonder if I respond to my bolded by expressing that I have a properly basic contempt for anything (allegedly) 'supernatural', if they would withdraw this bit of bull?

[SteveII]

Now, having said all that, I'm sure you'll ignore it all because you had to get all offended for your gawd, because I called it gawd, or jeebus, or some such (no, I don't have to respect your gawd just because you think it's worthy). If you're so thin skinned that you have to get upset that someone called your all-powerful, creator of the universe, sky-daddy a name, maybe an atheist forum isn't the best place for you.

I don't respond because you are disrespectful to God, I don't respond because you are disrespectful to me (and intentionally so). I'm not upset--just recognize what a waste of time answering you would be. It's a shame, perhaps you have some good points.

[Whateverist]

Steve, why is it so important to you that atheists think your justifications for you belief have merit? Is it about fulfilling your subscription quota or do our voices substitute for ones you'd be arguing with internally without us?

[Amarok]

No here is real course on Bayesian reasoning

http://www.richardcarrier.info/archives/12742

And here's example of said reasoning being used to kick apologist ass

http://www.richardcarrier.info/archives/12814

and here

http://www.richardcarrier.info/archives/12183

and here

http://www.richardcarrier.info/archives/11244

and here

http://www.richardcarrier.info/archives/10231

and here

http://www.richardcarrier.info/archives/10989

---

And how one would use it to actually look at history

http://www.richardcarrier.info/archives/7862

and again

http://www.richardcarrier.info/archives/3951

[LadyForCamus]

It never ceases to amaze me how theists will doggedly object, tooth and nail, to the most mundane and common explanations for their religious claims; explanations that are evidenced all throughout human history, in just about every culture; while propping up the most extraordinary explanation as inarguable truth on essentially no evidence at all.

Why do they find these concepts as answers so hard to fathom? Groups of individuals conspire, obfuscate, and collude in the name of power, wealth, and other self-interests. We know this for a fact. Cultures of folks weave legends and myths over time with the telling, and re-telling of old stories. We know this for a fact. Human beings exaggerate. We know this for a fact. The supernatural was often put forth as an explanation for natural occurrences before people had a scientific understanding of the world. We know this for a fact. Eyewitness testimony is inherently unreliable due to the faults of human memory. We know this as a scientific fact. All of these things, to one degree or another, are probably happening in our own culture, right now.

And yet...Steve and co. will continue to insist in the face of reason that these explanations; these things which are thoroughly evidenced in our reality; things they proffer as perfectly rational explanations for every other holy text besides their own; are individually and cumulatively far less probable than...magic.