Life is not improbable.

[Napoléon]

I would say 100% lol.

I wouldn't.

We are the smartest form of life ever to exist on this planet and it's took an awful long time of life existing for us to show up and even develop into a species that is doing anything other than rolling around in the dirt. Only in the past 4000 years or so has humanity started to monopolise the planet, yet life has existed for billions of years.

I agree, life elsewhere is almost a certainty. The chances of that life being on our intellectual level or above, sadly nowhere near as high.

I'm still hopeful we will one day join a galactic society and live out star trek though.

[tor]

I would say 100% lol.

I wouldn't.

We are the smartest form of life ever to exist on this planet and it's took an awful long time of life existing for us to show up and even develop into a species that is doing anything other than rolling around in the dirt. Only in the past 4000 years or so has humanity started to monopolise the planet, yet life has existed for billions of years.

I agree, life elsewhere is almost a certainty. The chances of that life being on our intellectual level or above, sadly nowhere near as high.

I'm still hopeful we will one day join a galactic society and live out star trek though.

I would say there is 100% chance there is life smarter than us.
They simply evolved earlier than us. And became smarter earlier than us.

[Heywood]

My point is that when you have infinite amount of events it's not the probability that is important but a possibility. If something is possible it happens cause there is such a huge number of events. Life is possible. Therefore it happens.

Suppose you have a bin and inside of it are an infinite amount of marbles. All the marbles are white except one. The one exception is a ruby red marble.

If you randomly draw a marble from that bin that contains an infinite amount of marbles....is it possible you will draw the ruby red one? Yes it is because the ruby red marble exists and therefore it is possible you can draw it. However the probability you will draw the ruby red marble is not a positive number.

When infinite amount events happen, funny things happen.....one of which is that a possible event out of the infinite number of events may never come to fruition.

[Esquilax]

Suppose you have a bin and inside of it are an infinite amount of marbles. All the marbles are white except one. The one exception is a ruby red marble.

If you randomly draw a marble from that bin that contains an infinite amount of marbles....is it possible you will draw the ruby red one? Yes it is because the ruby red marble exists and therefore it is possible you can draw it. However the probability you will draw the ruby red marble is not a positive number.

When infinite amount events happen, funny things happen.....one of which is that a possible event out of the infinite number of events may never come to fruition.

So do you just, like, constantly invert how probability actually works whenever you attempt to talk about it, or are you just desperately scrabbling to make your beliefs seem more credible?

[tor]

My point is that when you have infinite amount of events it's not the probability that is important but a possibility. If something is possible it happens cause there is such a huge number of events. Life is possible. Therefore it happens.

Suppose you have a bin and inside of it are an infinite amount of marbles. All the marbles are white except one. The one exception is a ruby red marble.

If you randomly draw a marble from that bin that contains an infinite amount of marbles....is it possible you will draw the ruby red one? Yes it is because the ruby red marble exists and therefore it is possible you can draw it. However the probability you will draw the ruby red marble is not a positive number.

When infinite amount events happen, funny things happen.....one of which is that a possible event out of the infinite number of events may never come to fruition.

Sorry but you fail.
Create infinite number of planets suitable for abiogenesis.
The chance of life arising on a friendly planet is X. Number of planets is Y.
The probability of life arising on at least one planet is 1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )
The more planets you add the bigger chance of life arising on at least one of em.
If it's infinity the probability is going towards 100%.

[Heywood]

Suppose you have a bin and inside of it are an infinite amount of marbles. All the marbles are white except one. The one exception is a ruby red marble.

If you randomly draw a marble from that bin that contains an infinite amount of marbles....is it possible you will draw the ruby red one? Yes it is because the ruby red marble exists and therefore it is possible you can draw it. However the probability you will draw the ruby red marble is not a positive number.

When infinite amount events happen, funny things happen.....one of which is that a possible event out of the infinite number of events may never come to fruition.

Sorry but you fail.
Create infinite number of planets suitable for abiogenesis.
The chance of life arising on a friendly planet is X. Number of planets is Y.
The probability of life arising on at least one planet is 1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )
The more planets you add the bigger chance of life arising on at least one of em.
If it's infinity the probability is going towards 100%.

Negative Tor, the fail is on you.

My example shows that a possible event doesn't have to have a positive probability when throw infinities into the mix.

[tor]

Sorry but you fail.
Create infinite number of planets suitable for abiogenesis.
The chance of life arising on a friendly planet is X. Number of planets is Y.
The probability of life arising on at least one planet is 1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )
The more planets you add the bigger chance of life arising on at least one of em.
If it's infinity the probability is going towards 100%.

Negative Tor, the fail is on you.

My example shows that a possible event doesn't have to have a positive probability.

Your example is bullshit.

[Esquilax]

If you randomly draw a marble from that bin that contains an infinite amount of marbles....is it possible you will draw the ruby red one? Yes it is because the ruby red marble exists and therefore it is possible you can draw it. However the probability you will draw the ruby red marble is not a positive number.

I can't believe I need to point this out to you, and don't take my refutation of this as a sign that I take your bare assertion remotely seriously, but if a probability has a negative number, then it's not possible. So you're essentially saying that yes, drawing the red marble is possible because it is in the set of possible choices, but that it's impossible.

Also? I reject the notion that there is only one red marble in your bin, because most likely there isn't, if we're drawing the correct analogy. Additionally, the longer the length of time you have to continue drawing marbles, the higher the probability of drawing a red one becomes.

That's how probability actually works.

[tor]

In fact it's even better than that.
You have unlimited number of boxes with many red and not red marbles.
And you draw every box every second until you get red marble.
As a matter of fact since number of boxes is infinite someone will get red one on the first attempt.

[Heywood]

I can't believe I need to point this out to you, and don't take my refutation of this as a sign that I take your bare assertion remotely seriously, but if a probability has a negative number, then it's not possible. So you're essentially saying that yes, drawing the red marble is possible because it is in the set of possible choices, but that it's impossible.

Also? I reject the notion that there is only one red marble in your bin, because most likely there isn't, if we're drawing the correct analogy. Additionally, the longer the length of time you have to continue drawing marbles, the higher the probability of drawing a red one becomes.

That's how probability actually works.

You reject the notion that there is only on red marble in the bin? That's silly. Its a thought experiment...and now you're changing the parameters of it so that you can reject the conclusion. Classic strawmanning you are doing.

But what is hilarious about your strawman argument is that it still fails! The thought experiment works if there are 2 red marbles in the bin, or 4 or even an infinite number of red marbles in the bin. All that is needed for it be logically possible that a red marble is never drawn is that there are infinite number of white marbles.

Infinities fuck with probabilities in weird ways.