The fall of post invasion Iraq

[Thumpalumpacus]

I personally think this recent episode in Iraq, while embarrassing for us, is not only not dangerous to our core interests, it is not even really that dangerous to the regime we left behind in Iraq.

I personally think ISIS is a stupid mob with bazookas that has far overplayed its own hand. It won't need to be defeated by the feeble and cowardly Iraqi forces. It would collapse under the weight because as a jihadist organization it should not have attempt to control large territory or population while fighting established civil administrations. ISIS is trying to do just that. A jihadist organization derive its strength from popular discontent with civil administration. Once a jihadist organization starts to over reach and try to become a civil administration in control of large territory, it would need to feed the people, run the public services, etc, better then the administration it fought against. Otherwise popular discontent will simply transfer from the enemies of the jihadists to the jihadists themselves,many the jihadist movement will collapse. Jihadist organizations such as ISIS are hardly the type that would attract intellectuals, skilled technocrats, and other elements of society needed to out perform iraq's civil administration. ISIS will soon start to collapse in on itself even as it tries to make further advances upon the Iraqi administration.

I agree with much of what you've written, and hope you're right about the parts with which I take issue. In partuicular, your points about the uncertain transition from army to government which has done in many movements. It should be noted that while they may not be particularly competent at governance, ISIS does have a hell of a lot of money, and that can go a ways to make up for inexperience.

Additionally,I think a stable oil market is a pretty important interest not only to America but also to our most important trading partners, in the sense that energy prices redound throughout the world's economy, and we still haven't recovered from 08. We are very vulnerable; the Japanese are as well; the Chinese and Indians, less so, but still somewhat open to harm. The nascent recovery we have underway here in America would likely suffer a serious, if not fatal, blow, from a large spike in oil futures.

I still think it's better for us to stay clear of further ME entanglements, and let the Europeans and Chinese secure their oil themselves.

[Minimalist]

I personally think ISIS is a stupid mob with bazookas that has far overplayed its own hand.

They've performed one valuable public service. They've exposed the Iraqi "army" that we pissed away so much money training as a bunch of chickenshits who couldn't or wouldn't fight their way out of a paper bag.
"Iraq" as a nation exists as a whimsical idea in the minds of Americans and as lines drawn on a map in books. It's people don't give a flying fuck about it.

[Heywood]

I personally think ISIS is a stupid mob with bazookas that has far overplayed its own hand.

They've performed one valuable public service. They've exposed the Iraqi "army" that we pissed away so much money training as a bunch of chickenshits who couldn't or wouldn't fight their way out of a paper bag.
"Iraq" as a nation exists as a whimsical idea in the minds of Americans and as lines drawn on a map in books. It's people don't give a flying fuck about it.

Yeah....they are about as competent as the IRS.

[Minimalist]

Oh look. Woodie the Shitstain has a new dead horse to beat on. Go fuck yourself, Woodie.

[Minimalist]

Seems like a fair exchange.

http://apnews.excite.com/article/2014072...cb5ed.html

As Iraq gets new president, car bomb kills 21

BTW, whatever happened to the big "offensive" to recapture the north?

[Crossless2.0]

They've performed one valuable public service. They've exposed the Iraqi "army" that we pissed away so much money training as a bunch of chickenshits who couldn't or wouldn't fight their way out of a paper bag.

Yeah, Bremer's decision to disband the Iraqi army to purge it of Baathists just keeps looking better and better as time goes on. Eliminate virtually the entire Sunni officer class -- fucking brilliant! What could possibly go wrong?

[DeistPaladin]

Stupid of them to announce when they planned to pull out, they must have known the extremists would just sit tight and then roll in once they left.

Yeah, that was a dumb move by Cheney on Meet the Press back in 2009 when he boasted of the agreement and the "successful" end to the Iraq War.

Obama tried to get a new agreement to let troops stay but no-go with the Iraqi government.

[Anomalocaris]

They've performed one valuable public service. They've exposed the Iraqi "army" that we pissed away so much money training as a bunch of chickenshits who couldn't or wouldn't fight their way out of a paper bag.

Yeah, Bremer's decision to disband the Iraqi army to purge it of Baathists just keeps looking better and better as time goes on. Eliminate virtually the entire Sunni officer class -- fucking brilliant! What could possibly go wrong?

I think the overarching lesson from the entire American foreign policy experience in the 21st century is no matter how bad things seemed before, things will always only go down hill once we start to act on what seemed to have been our best judgement on who our worst enemies are.

[Minimalist]

And the hang up to that agreement was the American insistence that our troops be exempt from Iraqi law and the Iraqi insistence that they not be. Not much room for compromise there.

I suppose Cheney and the other tit-turds would have agreed to that? Oh, wait. They didn't.

[Anomalocaris]

And the hang up to that agreement was the American insistence that our troops be exempt from Iraqi law and the Iraqi insistence that they not be. Not much room for compromise there.

I suppose Cheney and the other tit-turds would have agreed to that? Oh, wait. They didn't.

Oh, yes, and a primary reason why the Iraqis absolutely insisted any Americans staying in Iraq be subjected to Iraqi laws is how wonderfully well American forces, to say nothing of the blood thirsty infantile Blackwater goons we subcontracted our killings to, behaved in Iraq when they were not subjected to Iraqi law during Cheney's watch.