(August 3, 2015 at 6:41 pm)Aristocatt Wrote: Try being honest with your statistics, and I will be able to take them seriously.
The wiki page claims that the total death count across the world was between 75-430 million. Not in Europe alone.
You also seem to be so interested in being right about something that you fail to understand why 430 million is listed as a possibility.
Let's check the citations!
Oh wait, the citation that is supposed to list 430 million deaths is being cited from a fucking article that doesn't exist anymore.
Maybe a quick google search will help. Second result = information about ebola.
I understand the discrepancy we are having between the total population of the 8 biggest European countries.
I was adding turkey into mine, which actually is not reasonable in hindsight, for that I am sorry, I didn't realize I had done that. But You also removed Ukraine and Romania which is not reasonable.
Either way since you wanted to use wikipedia as a source, of the 3 citations for the scope of the black plague, 200 million is the highest estimate used.
Even with your slightly dishonest representation of European countries we have 304 > 200(world deaths, not European deaths)
So from this perspective not only has Europe bounced back, but it has made enough babies on it's own to account for the whole worlds loss of life.
If we are going to cherry pick random wikipedia quotes without reference to how likely they are we can do that to.
"It is estimated that between one-quarter and one-third of the European population (20 million people) died from the outbreak between 1348 and 1350."
"Contemporary observers, such as Jean Froissart, estimated the toll to be one-third—less an accurate assessment than an allusion to the Book of Revelation meant to suggest the scope of the plague.[13] Many rural villages were depopulated, mostly the smaller communities, as the few survivors fled to larger towns and cities leaving behind abandoned villages."
1. The 430M estimate is not world wide. I confess I did not read the footnote, however upon reading the footnotes reference are primarily made to the middle ages in europe such that distinction was specifically made in regards to China and the Middle East. If your assertion is right and that number is the world wide number than we would have to say the summation of all the numbers is approximately 430M, which is to say:
Total = Europe+China+Middle(365) = 430M = X +125M+10000+(500+1000)*365 = 430M = X + 125M + 0.01M + 5.5M => X = 299.5M = 300M
So based on the math if 430M was the world wide death than the European death toll would be the value of X at 300M. While the page for the source is no longer found it is disingenuous on your part to disregard the estimate simply because the site no longer has the page. I guess you expect anything on the internet to be around for all eternity... Hmm...
2. Though it would seem you are being disingenuous yourself. The 200M number that you are sighting from the BBC article is the estimate of deaths which occurred in the 14th century alone and does not account for the deaths over the entire span of the 13th-17th century (There are three outbreaks).
"The plague, otherwise known as the Black Death, ravaged Europe and Asia between the 14th and 17th Centuries. In the 14th Century alone it is estimated to have killed 200 million people.
3. The exclusion of Romania and Ukraine was due to the fact they are considered Eastern Europe and were not primarily effected by the plague in the first place. Such is illustrated on the map displayed on the site showing the primary impact of the plague was in Western Europe which is entirely reasonable.
4. Rather than argue this (which is not needed in support of my argument. Again you are arguing the scenario and not the logic of my argument). Let us agree with the following cherry picked quote from the same webpage (which is the very first paragraph on the page) in particular the bold section and move on:
"Consequences of the Black Death included a series of religious, social and economic upheavals, which had profound effects on the course of European history. The Black Death was one of the most devastating pandemics in human history, peaking in Europe between 1347 and 1350 with 30–95 percent of the entire population killed.[1] It reduced world population from an estimated 450 million to between 350 and 45 million in the 14th century. It took 150 and in some areas more than 250 years for Europe's population to recover."
