RE: Attention Theists! Present your best argument for the existence of God!
February 10, 2011 at 12:01 pm
(This post was last modified: February 10, 2011 at 12:06 pm by Ashendant.)
(February 10, 2011 at 11:55 am)Jaysyn Wrote:(February 10, 2011 at 10:15 am)Watson Wrote: the odds are literally beyond impossible.
Nope, the odds are exactly 1.
Nope the odds are
Quote:Some computations of the Drake equation, given different assumptions:
Current estimates (see below):
R* = 7/year, fp = 0.5, ne = 2, fl = 0.33, fi = 0.01, fc = 0.01, and L = 10,000 years
N = 7 × 0.5 × 2 × 0.33 × 0.01 × 0.01 × 10,000 = 2.31 (so two communicative civilizations exist in our galaxy at any given time, on average, plus two hundred more that are not trying to communicate).
But a pessimist might equally well believe that suitable planets are rare, life seldom becomes intelligent, and intelligent civilizations do not last very long:
R* = 10/year, fp = 0.5, ne = 0.01, fl = 0.13, fi = 0.001, fc = 0.01, and L = 1000 years
N = 10 × 0.5 × 0.01 × 0.13 × 0.001 × 0.01 × 1000 = 0.000065 (we are almost surely alone in our galaxy).
Alternatively, making some more optimistic assumptions, assuming that planets are common, life always arises when planets are favorable, 10% of civilizations become willing and able to communicate, and then spread through their local star systems for 100,000 years (a very short period in geologic time):
R* = 20/year, fp = 0.5, ne = 2, fl = 1, fi = 0.1, fc = 0.1, and L = 100,000 years
N = 20 × 0.5 × 2 × 1 × 0.1 × 0.1 × 100,000 = 20,000 (there's quite a few civilizations, although the closest one would still be about 1500 light years away).
The odds are 2 that are trying to communicate and 200 that are not, that is if you're not pessimistic or optimistic,
EDIT:that's per 100.000 years in our galaxy alone