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Attention Theists! Present your best argument for the existence of God!
#34
RE: Attention Theists! Present your best argument for the existence of God!
(February 10, 2011 at 11:55 am)Jaysyn Wrote:
(February 10, 2011 at 10:15 am)Watson Wrote: the odds are literally beyond impossible.

Nope, the odds are exactly 1.

Nope the odds are

Quote:Some computations of the Drake equation, given different assumptions:

Current estimates (see below):

R* = 7/year, fp = 0.5, ne = 2, fl = 0.33, fi = 0.01, fc = 0.01, and L = 10,000 years
N = 7 × 0.5 × 2 × 0.33 × 0.01 × 0.01 × 10,000 = 2.31 (so two communicative civilizations exist in our galaxy at any given time, on average, plus two hundred more that are not trying to communicate).

But a pessimist might equally well believe that suitable planets are rare, life seldom becomes intelligent, and intelligent civilizations do not last very long:

R* = 10/year, fp = 0.5, ne = 0.01, fl = 0.13, fi = 0.001, fc = 0.01, and L = 1000 years
N = 10 × 0.5 × 0.01 × 0.13 × 0.001 × 0.01 × 1000 = 0.000065 (we are almost surely alone in our galaxy).

Alternatively, making some more optimistic assumptions, assuming that planets are common, life always arises when planets are favorable, 10% of civilizations become willing and able to communicate, and then spread through their local star systems for 100,000 years (a very short period in geologic time):

R* = 20/year, fp = 0.5, ne = 2, fl = 1, fi = 0.1, fc = 0.1, and L = 100,000 years
N = 20 × 0.5 × 2 × 1 × 0.1 × 0.1 × 100,000 = 20,000 (there's quite a few civilizations, although the closest one would still be about 1500 light years away).

The odds are 2 that are trying to communicate and 200 that are not, that is if you're not pessimistic or optimistic,

EDIT:that's per 100.000 years in our galaxy alone
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Messages In This Thread
RE: Attention Theists! Present your best argument for the existence of God! - by Ashendant - February 10, 2011 at 12:01 pm

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