(February 18, 2016 at 1:54 am)SteelCurtain Wrote: AAA, the ad hoc bullshit you're spewing is tired. I'm not going to get into a protracted argument here, but you're committing a fallacy of composition on top of starting with a false premise.
Evolution is not purely random, and treating it as such is false. Also, you are assuming that all mutations are sequential. They are not. Making ad hoc statistical observations about many many mutations and treating the process as one occurrence is a ridiculous oversimplification of a process that you clearly do not understand.
I'll put it like this, for comparison: There have been, let's say as a conservative estimate, 5,500 generations of homo sapiens. Let's say the average person has sex 80 times in a year. Let's say the average fertility range is 15-55, so the average person will have sex 3200 times in their life. The average ejaculation includes 1.3 billion sperm cells. The average woman will produce around 400 viable ovum in her lifetime. Doing the math gives us, in your lineage, conservatively, a 4x10-²⁵ chance that you would exist. And that doesn't even account for all the nocturnal emissions and masturbatory sperm cells that you could have been, and it doesn't account for the complicated math that would account for each pair of people meeting at just the right time and marrying/fucking to make babies.
So would it be wise for me to doubt your existence based on this awesome ad hoc calculation?
No, we were talking about abiogenesis in the calculation portion. That is BEFORE it can reproduce and therefore evolve. So no it isn't a fallacy. Scientists think that there are about 250 -400 proteins needed by the simplest possible viable organism in order to enter the evolutionary pathway. We just calculated the unbelievable odds of one. So you do need a ton of sequential characters to line up in the correct sequence in order to start evolution. If it wasn't random, then what was it?
