Blacks + Hispanics are about 29% of the population. If you win 75% of them, you will win the election if you only win 40% of the remaining 71%. It is absolutely realistic that Hillary will win 75% of Hispanics + blacks. Blacks love the Clintons and Hispanics hate Trump. She'll probably do even better than 75%. On the other hand, it's very doubtful that she would only win 40% of the rest. She might only win 40% of white males because we're stupid but the women would balance that out. I just don't see how she can lose.
Admittedly, the general election is actually 50 individual contests and the demographics vary widely from state to state. Consider Texas though where the black + Hispanic vote is 50%! I could see Texas going blue for the first time since 1976.
Hispanics are playing a greater and greater role every election cycle. You can't piss off the entire group - especially if your opponent is beloved by Blacks - and have a realistic chance of winning. This is exactly the same one-two punch that sealed Romney's fate. He lost the Black + Hispanic vote badly and it was just too much to make up elsewhere. I don't see how it can be any different with Trump. It will probably be worse.
Admittedly, the general election is actually 50 individual contests and the demographics vary widely from state to state. Consider Texas though where the black + Hispanic vote is 50%! I could see Texas going blue for the first time since 1976.
Hispanics are playing a greater and greater role every election cycle. You can't piss off the entire group - especially if your opponent is beloved by Blacks - and have a realistic chance of winning. This is exactly the same one-two punch that sealed Romney's fate. He lost the Black + Hispanic vote badly and it was just too much to make up elsewhere. I don't see how it can be any different with Trump. It will probably be worse.
Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former.
Albert Einstein
Albert Einstein
