RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 8, 2016 at 8:35 pm
(This post was last modified: March 8, 2016 at 8:37 pm by Jenny A.)
I see your problem. You are assuming Monty cheats. Otherwise we know the probability. Each door has a one third chance of revealing the prize and a two thirds chance of revealing a goat. By revealing a goat door we didn't choose, Monty gives a mathematical reason to switch doors.
It is counter intuitive. And I remember being really bothered by this problem. But the math does work.
It is counter intuitive. And I remember being really bothered by this problem. But the math does work.
If there is a god, I want to believe that there is a god. If there is not a god, I want to believe that there is no god.