RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 8, 2016 at 9:10 pm
(This post was last modified: March 8, 2016 at 9:19 pm by Excited Penguin.)
That's just it, Jenny. I shouldn't have to try it - it should be obvious going in and it isn't. In no version of this problem does it say that the one making the choice has played this game numerous times before and that switching was the right thing to do in most of them.
If I did the experiment multiple times I wouldn't do anything but try and find a pattern in order to justify my choice. The problem however is that this math puzzle doesn't involve a variable such as you having played the same game numerous times before and getting a certain outcome most of the times.
And even if I did this experiment you suggested and it turned out that in most cases I won because I switched, that wouldn't tell us anything about any future similar experiment. It just wouldn't. It would only help you with that one particular one you were doing at the moment, presumably(if you can call that kind of luck help).
The math is no proof because it doesn't make any sense as it is.
The math is bad. You can try and prove it however you want but in the end nothing can make one option better than the other no matter how you go about it.
How about you do it instead and tell me what happened. The chances are very high that nothing out of the ordinary will happen and you'll find no reliable pattern.
From what I'm hearing from the other side it seems to me that using probability to make a choice in this case is nothing if not some sort of excuse to feel better about your decision - it's delusional, however. Just because you make some sort of order out of chaos doesn't guarantee you'll win. It's still a chaotic outcome and there's nothing you can do to make it any less so.
If I did the experiment multiple times I wouldn't do anything but try and find a pattern in order to justify my choice. The problem however is that this math puzzle doesn't involve a variable such as you having played the same game numerous times before and getting a certain outcome most of the times.
And even if I did this experiment you suggested and it turned out that in most cases I won because I switched, that wouldn't tell us anything about any future similar experiment. It just wouldn't. It would only help you with that one particular one you were doing at the moment, presumably(if you can call that kind of luck help).
The math is no proof because it doesn't make any sense as it is.
The math is bad. You can try and prove it however you want but in the end nothing can make one option better than the other no matter how you go about it.
How about you do it instead and tell me what happened. The chances are very high that nothing out of the ordinary will happen and you'll find no reliable pattern.
From what I'm hearing from the other side it seems to me that using probability to make a choice in this case is nothing if not some sort of excuse to feel better about your decision - it's delusional, however. Just because you make some sort of order out of chaos doesn't guarantee you'll win. It's still a chaotic outcome and there's nothing you can do to make it any less so.
