RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 8, 2016 at 9:34 pm
(This post was last modified: March 8, 2016 at 9:41 pm by Jenny A.)
Look. We have a couple members in Portland or Seattle. If you want to bet, I'll pay you the cost of your plane tickets plus $10,000 if after a thousand tries the switched choice isn't an ace more than one third of the time. If it is, you owe me $5,000. I could find a use for $5,000. But I wouldn’t want to steal your money. Try the experiment with a friend at home first. You'll never bet me if you do.
And you still haven't voiced any argument beyond your gut distrust of the math. Offering a gamble is the only answer I have to your gut.
And you still haven't voiced any argument beyond your gut distrust of the math. Offering a gamble is the only answer I have to your gut.
If there is a god, I want to believe that there is a god. If there is not a god, I want to believe that there is no god.
