RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 8, 2016 at 10:30 pm
(This post was last modified: March 8, 2016 at 10:36 pm by Excited Penguin.)
You have a third chance of winning no matter what you do. Revealing a door's prize doesn't change the door you chose at first. It doesn't say that you chose the wrong one or the right one, it merely tells you that you don't know that you lost yet. If he revealed the right door you would know that you lost.
To better illustrate this consider that you chose the right door first and then, after the reveal you switch and choose the wrong one.
Now consider that you chose the wrong one first and then after the reveal you chose the right one.
Either way, he will still reveal a false option and that won't tell you anything about how likely is your option to be true or not. It all comes down to what door you choose first if you're going with the switch method. If you choose the right one more often than not, and there's nothing to say that you won't, because there's nothing to say that you're more likely to choose a wrong door than a right one, then you'll lose the game more often than not(because of your switch method).
The math may very well make sense theoretically, but it doesn't apply in the real world at all in this case. It's an illusion, albeit a very strong one, by the looks of it.
To better illustrate this consider that you chose the right door first and then, after the reveal you switch and choose the wrong one.
Now consider that you chose the wrong one first and then after the reveal you chose the right one.
Either way, he will still reveal a false option and that won't tell you anything about how likely is your option to be true or not. It all comes down to what door you choose first if you're going with the switch method. If you choose the right one more often than not, and there's nothing to say that you won't, because there's nothing to say that you're more likely to choose a wrong door than a right one, then you'll lose the game more often than not(because of your switch method).
The math may very well make sense theoretically, but it doesn't apply in the real world at all in this case. It's an illusion, albeit a very strong one, by the looks of it.
