RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 9, 2016 at 12:25 am
(This post was last modified: March 9, 2016 at 12:34 am by Excited Penguin.)
It is two out of three to get a goat first, but after he reveals a goat the pool of possibilities shrinks. Your chances do get better than you thought they were but it doesn't tell you which of the two remaining options are more likely to be true. This is where the illusion comes in.